2008 United States presidential election

The United States will hold its 55th quadrennial presidential election on November 4, 2008. The rules are very complicated, and the race is long and expensive; the contenders by mid-January 2008 have already spent some $400 million seeking the nomination of the Republican and Democratic parties.

The leading Democratic contenders for the nomination are Senator Hillary Clinton, and Senator Barack Obama, trailed by several also-rans. Clinton and Obama are virtually tied among Democrats nationwide (Clinton led 44%-42%). They face off next in the "Tsunami Tuesday" primary in 21 states on Feb. 5; however they will win delegates in proportion to their vote, and since they are so close the results are not expected to be decisive. Candidates and observers all expect a long primary season that will continue into the spring.

Among the Republicans the clear frontrunner is Arizona Senator John McCain, who has across-the board support, especially among moderates. His most serious opponent is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who has a base among more conservative Republicans, but shares that with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who is strongest among evangelicals. In nationwide polls of Republican voters on the eve of Tsunami Tuesday on Feb. 5, McCain is currently well ahead with 43% support, followed by Romney at 24% and Huckabee at 18%.

Each party will officially name its ticket at its national convention in late August for the Democrats and early September for the GOP; the great majority of delegates will be selected in February and March--almost half will be selected in a 24 state "Tsunami Tuesday" on Feb. 5.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been making preparations for the possibility of becoming an independent candidate. As a multi-billionaire he has the capacity to finance his own campaign without outside contributions or federal matching funds. Former Green Party and independent Presidential candidate Ralph Nader has indicated he would consider running if Clinton is the Democratic nominee.

This election will select the 44th President of the United States and the 47th Vice President. Their terms will begin Jan. 20, 2009. President George W. Bush, who has served two terms, is ineligible to run. Vice President Dick Cheney has long said he would not run. No one close to the Bush administration is in the race, and it has not favored any candidate.

Polls in early 2008 show a competitive November election, between top Democratic candidates (in poll standings) Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama vs. John McCain, while Clinton and Obama are currently ahead of the other Republicans.

Democrats in 2007

see U.S. Democratic Party

In the Democratic race, throughout 2007 Clinton had a wide lead over Obama and Edwards, but Obama gained rapidly in early 2008, while Edwards faded.

Democratic Contenders

Democratic Candidate: Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton, the Senator from New York, and the wife of popular former president Bill Clinton, has been running on her experience and organization. Clinton has been a highly successful fundraiser. For calendar years 2001 through 2006 her total receipts were $51.6 million, with spending of $40.8 million. Clinton's best financed opponent is Barack Obama. Frank Luntz, the doyen of American campaign pollsters, observed in early December, 2007, "Among Democrats, Obama has the momentum, but Clinton has the organization. Obama has been drawing the crowds and creating the buzz, but he has to turn curiosity into votes. But Clinton has one of the most formidable political organizations ever assembled. They play with broad shoulders and sharp elbows. They take no prisoners and accept no criticism. It's going to be quite a battle." In 2007, Hillary Clinton led all the polls as first choice of Democrats, with especially strong support from women. In 2007 she raised $118 million for her campaign, 15% more than her opponent Illinois Senator Barack Obama. In terms of her Senate voting, Clinton moved 16 places to the left in 2007, ranking as the 16th-most-liberal senator. In 2006, she had been the 32nd-most-liberal senator. Obama's attacks on her focused at first on her 2002 vote in support of the war in Iraq, which he opposed, By late 2007 Obama broadened his rhetoric by attacking her as as the representative of the old politics, with Obama proclaiming himself the agent of change. In response Clinton underscored Obama's inexperience, emphasizing the contrast between his vague promises of change and her long, concrete record of fighting for real change, a difference her campaign calls "talk versus action." Obama scored an unexpected win on Jan. 3, in the Iowa caucuses, defeating Clinton and John Edwards by 8 points. With Obama seizing the momentum and attracting youthful voters, he appeared to be heading towards a win in New Hampshire, the first primary state, but Clinton won the primary 39% to 37% for Obama and 17% for Edwards. Clinton won by wide margins among women, poorer voters, union members, registered Democrats and older voters--that is, a profile that resembled the historic New Deal Coalition. With John Edwards trailing far behind and Bill Richardson dropping out, the Democratic contest focused on Obama and Clinton. Clinton defeated Obama in the Nevada caucus on Jan. 19; Obama won big in the South Carolina primary on Jan. 26, 2008. Clinton, whose husband is especially popular in the black community, is trying to capture a quarter of the black vote in the face of Obama's popularity as the strongest black candidate ever to run for president. Blacks comprise about 20% of the vote in the Democratic primary. When Clinton equated Lyndon B. Johnson with Martin Luther King in the passage of civil rights laws, and Bill Clinton called Obama's views on Iraq a "fairy tale", Black leaders expressed concern at a subtle racist tone. After a few days Obama and Clinton called a truce on the race issue. Clinton won an easy victory in the Florida primary, but no delegates were at stake. She scored 59% versus Obama at 33% and Edwards at 14%. If the contest is not settled by the time of the convention in late August, Clinton strategists are making plans to have the convention overturn the decision of the National Committee and restore the delegates it stripped from Florida and Michigan.

Democratic Candidate: Barack Obama Barack Obama, Senator from Illinois since 2005, began by presenting himself as a post-racial, post-partisan contender of universal appeal, promising to end the old politics and bring the country together in bipartisan fashion. He appealed strongly to youth. Making "change" his central campaign theme and downplaying race, Obama, a charismatic speaker, argues "We can't afford to settle for the same old politics." In late 2007 he repeatedly attacked Clinton for her 2002 vote supporting war against Iraq, and for her ties to lobbies and old-fashioned politics. Clinton responded by hammering away at Obama's inexperience and charged he substituted rhetoric for action. Bill Clinton, noting that Obama and his wife recorded similar voting records in the Senate, snapped that Obama was engaging in a "fairy tale" regarding Iraq, a point of ridicule that bothered Black leaders and increased racial polarization among Democrats. Obama raised $103 million in 2007 and spent $85 million, and raised a record setting $32 million in January 2008. In terms of his Senate voting, he moved 15 places to the left in 2007, ranking as the most-liberal member of the U.S. Senate. In 2006, he had been the 16th-most-liberal senator. Obama's popularity is strongest among younger and better educated voters. He is currently dominating the African American vote, which comprises about 20% of the Democratic primary vote nationwide, and 30-50% in the deep South, notably as South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. However Clinton's husband Bill Clinton has long been popular in the black community and she has received many high profile endorsements. 2008 began with Clinton enjoying a big lead nationally, but Obama scored a stunning victory on January 3, in the Iowa caucuses, defeating Clinton and John Edwards by 8 points. With Obama seizing the momentum and attracting youthful voters, pundits and pollsters agreed he was heading to a landslide win in the New Hampshire, the first primary state. But Clinton surprised everyone (even her own staff) by winning the primary 39% to 37% for Obama and 17% for Edwards. Obama did best among men, younger voters, independents, and college graduates, while Clinton won by wide margins among women, poorer voters, union members, registered Democrats and older voters--that is, her voter profile resembled the historic New Deal Coalition. Clinton again outpolled Obama in the Nevada caucuses, but Obama refused to concede because he claimed one more delegate than she. With John Edwards trailing far behind, the Democratic contest focused on Obama and Clinton. In a bruising battle in South Carolina on Jan. 26, Obama, with strong black support, won big. Clinton remains ahead in nationwide polls and in most states on Tsunami Tuesday. The campaign turned rough in mid-January, as Obama began to link the two Clintons, calling Bill Clinton is a liar by saying: "He continues to make statements that are not supported by the facts — whether it's about my record of opposition to the war in Iraq or our approach to organizing in Las Vegas. This has become a habit, and one of the things that we're gonna have to do is to directly confront Bill Clinton when he's making statements that are not factually accurate." Obama won a landslide in the South Carolina primary by sweeping 78% of the the blacks vote and 25% of the whites, giving him 55% overall to 27% for Clinton and 18% for Edwards. Analysts point out that the upshot may be that Obama is typecast as the "black candidate" with a weak appeal to Hispanics as the contest heads to states where blacks comprise less than 25% of the primary voters. As political scientist Larry Sabato noted, "A few carefully chosen words and framing angles [by the Clintons] have transformed Obama from the post-racial, post-partisan contender of universal appeal into a more typical African-American candidate, who is much less intrinsically attractive to whites and Hispanics." Polls, however, show that Obama is only 2 points behind Clinton heading into Tsunami Tuesday.

Republicans in 2007

see U.S. Republican Party

GOP Contenders

GOP Candidate: Mike Huckabee Mike Huckabee, little known nationally through mid 2007, climbed the polls steadily and won the closely watched Iowa caucus on Jan. 3, 2008. His political base comprises evangelical Christians, who comprise 35% of the GOP voters nationwide. He has been attacked as a tax-and-spend liberal, especially by rival Fred Thompson..His funding base is meager, but national polls put him at 19%, compared to 20% for Romney and 26% for the leader John McCain. Analysts point to his evangelical base, his conservatism, his appeal to southerners and his winsome personality as critical factors in his move from obscurity to the top rank of political contenders. Analysts say his inability to broaden his base beyond evangelicals is his biggest weakness when it comes to winning primaries, together with his weak financial base. Huckabee perfected the shoestring operation. He raised only $2.3 million by Oct. 2007, less than 5% of the money of each main rival. He never had enough money to send advance teams to organize events or drum up crowds, nor could he afford fund-raising operations, private polls, big-name political consultants, or a staff of policy advisers and media experts. He relied on volunteers from churches and the home-school movement to schedule his events. His daughter is his national campaign manager. The retail politics of the first states did not cost much. He won in Iowa by relying on his quick wit, fluent oratory, and in lieu of commercials, as many TV and radio talk-show appearances as he could schedule. To draw crowds his rallies featured actor Chuck Norris and his own playing the bass guitar with local rock bands. As the election calendar turned to larger states he lacked the cash to compete, so in late Jan. 2008 he cut back on Florida operations to concentrate on a few smaller, overlooked southern states on Feb. 5.

GOP Candidate: John McCain Arizona Senator John McCain in 2000 defeated George W. Bush in the New Hampshire and other primaries, but Bush came back to easily win the nomination, and then went on to win the very close election. McCain stands for civic duty and traditional conservative positions, especially regarding lower spending, lower taxes, opposition to abortion, and a strong foreign policy. Some conservatives complain about his longtime advocacy of campaign finance reforms that would weaken the power of special interest groups, saying they violate the First Amendment freedom of speech. Other conservatives object to his opposition to Bush's tax cuts in 2001, although McCain now supports their renewal. A former Navy flier who was shot down in the Vietnam War and spent over five years as a prisoner of war in Hanoi, McCain has been a prominent voice on military and foreign affairs. He is especially outspoken in demanding forceful action in the Iraq war, and claims credit for the "surge" underway in 2007-8 under General David Petraeus. McCain was the frontrunner for the 2008 presidential nomination according to the polls when his campaign imploded in summer 2007. He had spent all his money, direction was lacking, his staff was in turmoil, and most had to be terminated. McCain's standing fell sharply in the polls because of the unpopularity of his hardline Iraq position and his proposed bill (in cooperation with Bush and Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy) that would open a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Commentators wrote his obituary. But McCain fought back, using his drastically reduced funds to concentrate on a highly personal town-by-town "retail politics" campaign in the first primary state, New Hampshire. His main opponent Mitt Romney lost in the Iowa caucuses in early January, 2008, giving McCain momentum in New Hampshire. As supporters chanted "Mac is Back!" he defeated Romney 37%-32%, with Mike Huckabee trailing at 11%. With his wins in South Carolina and Florida, and his wide lead in most states voting on Feb. 5, McCain emerged not only as the front-runner but as the favorite of the party establishments. He has far more newspaper endorsements than his opponents, and more endorsements from leading party officials who stress his electability. His decisive victory in Florida came in a closed primnary where only registered Republicans could vote. Nevertheless, some conservative talk-show hosts, who are outside the GOP organization, vehemently oppose him because of his independence on numerous issues.

GOP Candidate: Mitt Romney Mitt Romney, a businessman who came to national attention rescuing the scandal-ridden 2002 Olympics, served a term as governor of Massachusetts (2002-2006), with a moderate record that included fee increases (but not tax increases), a balanced budget, and the nation's first universal healthcare program. He supported abortion and gay rights. As a presidential candidate Romney sought the support of the business community and social conservatives. He reversed moderate positions on abortion and gay rights to take a hardline conservative position on them, and on opposition to illegal immigrants. Opponents charged he changed too often. Romney has been a leader in fund-raising, augmented by over $35 million from his own fortune. He has sponsored by far the greatest number of TV commercials of any candidate. However he was little known outside of Massachusetts, so his strategy was to play for early wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, then "sling-shot" the momentum into national visibility. After leading in both states the tide turned suddenly and he lost to Mike Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire, while picking up some uncontested delegates in Wyoming. ("Two silvers and a gold," his spinmeisters announced.) Romney changed strategy and began denouncing Washington, emphasizing his business skills, and promising large-scale federal help to the troubled Michigan economy, where the domestic auto companies have been doing very poorly. He avoided oblivion by a decisive win by 9 points over McCain in the Michigan GOP primary on Jan 15, along with a less-noticed win over Ron Paul in the lightly contested Nevada caucuses. Religion was at issue for evangelicals who saw Mormonism an undesirable cult; Romney, a prominent Mormon and former bishop, spoke in Texas on the need for religious tolerance. While his religion generally hurt his vote totals, it was a boon for him in Nevada, where polls showed one-fourth of the GOP caucus electorate was Mormon, and Romney won better than 90 percent of those voters; likewise it helped him sweep the Utah primary. Romney outspent the fieldd on TV ads in South Carolina and Florida. When he discovered he was doing poorly he pulled his advertising out of South Carolina and concentrated on Nevada, where the main contenders did not appear. Romney came in fourth place in South Carolina. He was defeated by McCain in Florida, 36% to 31%, ceding the momentum to McCain. Analysts say his personal wealth, should he choose to spend it, is enough to carry him through the primaries, but they rate him a distinct underdog who would have a hard time overcoming McCain's big lead in delegates. On Tsunami Tuesday Romney did well in caucus states, where his high-spending organizational efforts paid off amidst very low turnout. However, he did poorly in the primary states, notably California, where his $10 million advertising blitz was pushed aside by McCain, who ran only a few radio ads. The main base of the GOP is the South, but Romney ran a weak third in the region, as Huckabee captured the evangelical vote. The Romney campaign has gone through repeated transformations, with new themes and new campaign slogans, new ads and new message strategies desiged to reach the conservatives who listen to talk radio. One after another Romney sought an identity as the candidate of true fiscal, social and national security conservatism. He has portrayed himself as Mr Efficiency--as the corporate executive candidate who understands the economy "in my DNA." He then attacked illegal immigrants, an issue that had little traction. Romney currently claims to be the candidate of change, who will defeat the Washington insiders and elites, whom he links to McCain. On Tsunami Tuesday, Time magazine reports, his rhetoric took on a previously unseen, almost Trotskyite tenor: "It's time for the politicians to leave Washington and for we, the people, to take over!"

2008

The Republican primaries shows a contest in turmoil, which may indicate the splintering of the Reagan coalition of social conservatives, the religious right, national-defense hawks, and advocates of low taxes. McCain started with a large lead but collapsed in the spring, because of grass roots opposition to his liberal stance on immigration, and bad financial strategy that left the campaign broke. But McCain soldiered on, making a comeback in early January, 2008, and winning the New Hampshire primary by 37%-32% for Romney. Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York, used his heroic image from the 9-11 Attack, and promise of a strong counter-terrorism policy, to vault to the lead in mid-2007, despite moderate social policies that the large conservative wing disliked. In early December, however, his negatives were catching up and he fell from the 30% to the 20% level nationally, and ran a weak fourth in New Hampshire at 9%. His strategy involves a comeback in the Florida primary. Hollywood actor and former senator Fred Thompson entered the race late, but appealed to many conservatives looking for another Ronald Reagan. His ineffective campaign style led to a steady erosion of support; he polled 1% in New Hampshire and dropped out after a weak third-place in South Carolina. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, by reversing previous moderate positions, suddenly became a hard-line conservative spokesman. His Mormon religion, however, caused distrust among the religious conservatives who bulk large in some primaries. Romney's strategy was to pour millions of dollars (much of it his personal money) into Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping that victories there on January 3 and 8, 2008, would generate massive favorable publicity. That publicity supposedly would propel him into a dominant position in the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5, 2008, when 45% of the delegates will be chosen.

Every prediction and game plan was shattered in November, when Mike Huckabee, a little known former governor of Arkansas, shot to the top of the polls and won in Iowa. His base comprises evangelical Christians, who comprise 35% of national GOP voters. Evangelicals comprise 48%-68% of Republicans in the South and border states, 47% in Iowa, and only 11% in New Hampshire. They are 33% in Michigan, 29% in Florida, 27% in California and 14% in New York.

Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani, who gained worldwide fame as mayor of New York City (1993-2001), was the GOP front-runner for most of 2007, but his campaign suddenly falterd in late 2007 and crashed. His best showing in the primaries was a weak 3rd in Florida, and he pulled out and endorsed McCain.

Downplaying his moderate views on abortion, gun control and immigration, Giuliani emphasized his heroic leadership of New York City in the 9-11 Attacks, his cutting crime in New York, and his hard-line against terrorism. Although he campaigned vigorously, he was so focused on his own record that he did not make contact with what the voters were interested in. Worse, he could not shake off charges of corruption. He lost most of his support in the last two months of 2007. He won only 3.5% of voters in Iowa; 8.5% in New Hampshire; 2.8% in Michigan; 4.3% in Nevada and 2.1% in South Carolina. Pulling out of other states, he concentrated all his efforts in a losing battle for Florida, where he ran third with a mere 15%. Analysts noted the more voters saw of Giuliani, the fewer supported him.

After Giuliani's poor showing in Florida, he withdrew from the race and endorsed John McCain. Giuliani's strategy was to concentrate on the winner-take-all primary in Florida, which would deliver more delegates to the winner than all the previous races combined; however, the strategy failed, as national media reports concentrated on the candidates campaigning in the earlier primary races.

The candidates in primaries and caucuses

For daily updates on the polls see [11]

Iowa: January 3 Obama scored a surprise win in the Jan 3, Iowa caucuses, 9 points ahead of Edwards, who was slightly ahead of Clinton. He immediately gained so much momentum that many observers though the Clinton campaign was in danger of collapsing. Republican Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, (and former Baptist minister), made a strong appeal to the religious conservatives. His base of support is "born again" evangelical Christians, who comprise 35% of national GOP voters and 47% of the GOP voters in Iowa. Years as a TV announcer gave him a polished yet informal campaign persona that no other candidate could match. Outspent by Romney 10-1, Huckabee nevertheless scored a major upset in the Iowa caucuses, coming in first and beating Romney by 9 points. Voter behavior Dem. entrance polls GOP entrance polls Clinton did well among voters over 50, liberals, and both the lowest and highest income groups. Obama, who won decisively, held huge leads among voters under 35. He also did best among those who are "very liberal" and those earning lower middle income ($35,000-$50,000). Edwards did best among men, those earning $75,000-$100,000, and 30-49 year olds. The GOP pre-caucus polls in Iowa showed Huckabee at 29% and Romney at 28%, trailed by McCain at 11%. Huckabee led among 30-64 year olds, among "very conservative" Republicans, those earning $50,000-$100,000, and Born Again Christians. Romney led among Independents, both the youngest and oldest voters, moderates, and the lowest and highest income groups. John McCain was in third place by virtue of doing well (though not leading) among voters over 55 (especially over 65), and moderates.	New Hampshire: January 8 After his win in Iowa, Obama led in all the polls by an average of 10 points in New Hampshire, but Clinton stunned the political world by beating Obama 39%-37%, with Edwards at 17%. McCain won the GOP contest by 37%-32% over Romney, who had previously dominated the polls in the Granite State. Huckabee ran third at 11%; about 11% of the state's Republicans are evangelicals. Voter behavior GOP exit polls Dem exit polls Obama did best among men, younger voters, independents, and college graduates, while Clinton led by wide margins among women, poorer voters, union members, registered Democrats and older voters--that is, her voter profile resembled the old New Deal Coalition.	Michigan: January 15 The Michigan primary was won by Clinton on Jan. 15 with 56% of the vote, but her main opponents had withdrawn and supported an "uncommitted" ticket. The reason was the national party stripped Michigan of all its delegates for breaking the national rules on primary dates. After unexpected defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney promised to fight on, but stopped his TV ads in South Carolina (which has a primary on Jan. 19) to concentrate on the Jan. 15 Michigan primary in the state where he was born and his father was governor. Romney regained momentum by a 10 point win in Michigan over McCain. Voter behavior DEM exit poll GOP exit poll Exit polls show McCain lost soundly among registered Republicans--41% for Romney, 27% for McCain. McCain also lost among voters who considered the economy as the top issue—Romney 42% McCain 29%. He fared no better among those who said illegal immigration Polls show the economy may be looming more important as consumer confidence tumbles to the lowest levels of the post-9/11 era. Data released Jan 16 by Rasmussen Reports shows that 73% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse. McCain did win among those consider the War in Iraq the top issue—McCain 41% Romney 31%. However, among those who considered the broader War on Terror as most important McCain and Romney were tied at 31%.
Nevada: January 19 Voter behavior DEM exit poll GOP exit poll As 28% of Democrats turned out, Clinton added Hispanics to her coalition of women, older and poorer Democrats, and outpolled Obama 51-45. Obama refused to concede because he won one more convention delegate than she. 15% were Hispanics; 64% of them favored Clinton. 15% were black; 83% of them favored Obama. Obama has strong support among secular voters while Clinton carried Catholics, Jews and white Protestants. Most Republican candidates ignored the state, except for Romney who won 51%; half his supporters were Mormons. Only 11% of the state's registered Republicans showed up.	South Carolina: January 19(R) & January 26(D) In the first contest to test the mood of southern voters, McCain edged Huckabee 33%-30%, while Thompson edged out Romney for third place, 16%-15%. More than half of the TV commercials in the primary were Romney ads, but he gave up a few days early to solidify his lead in Nevada caucuses the same day. Allegations of dirty tricks and illegal campaigning, reappeared, but were not as nasty as reported back in the McCain-Bush contest in 2000. Clinton and Obama questioned one another's honesty and fitness for the White House in a nationally televised debate on Jan. 21 notable for its nasty tone. Clinton and Obama are using opposite tactics to get out their black supporters. Clinton depends on the established African American political networks, based around prominent politicians and religious leaders, as well as barber shops and beauty parlors that reach the lower-income voters. Clinton's traditional approach involves money--for example hiring a state representative at $20,000 a month, who in turns gives out "walking-around money," or "street money" to local supporters to guarantee turnout. Obama, eschewing the old techniques, has brought in out-of state organizers, many of them white, to create a new campaign apparatus from scratch. They have circumvented the established black political gentry and try to reach the voters directly. They discovered they had to publicize that Obama was black. With consciousness of skin color a factor in the African American community, the organizers featured appearances by Obama's wife, Michelle Obama, whose darker complexion carries a special meaning when contrasted to the lighter skin tone of her husband. "It was important for people to see that Obama wasn't putting on airs by marrying a woman lighter than him," explained Obama's South Carolina political director. "You think a thing like that wouldn't matter, but here it does, very much." Voter behavior GOP exit poll DEM exit poll McCain won moderates and independents, and scored well among the large active-duty and retired military population. His supporters were more upscale (in terms of education and income) and more moderate (in terms of social issues) than Huckabee's. Many deeply religious voters flocked to Mike Huckabee, while nonevangelical conservatives splintered among McCain, Romney, Thompson, and Huckabee. South Carolina proved racially polarized. About 55% of the voters were black, and they gave Obama 78% of their vote, compared to 19% for Clinton and 2% for Edwards, who won the primary there in 2004. Indeed, the Democratic National Committee gave the state an early primary in order to feature the black vote.	Florida: January 29 Florida, with 18 million people, is a microcosm of the GOP: part Southern, part northern, part Republican establishment, part evangelical, with many conservative Cubans as well. Unlike the retail politics of Iowa and New Hampshire, the candidates used wholesale techniques, relying on the media. Romney, the best funded candidate, ran more commercials in the state's numerous TV markets than all his opponents together. Of 8,012 TV spots, Romney aired 4,475, followed by 3,067 for Giuliani and a mere 470 for the cash-strapped McCain campaign. McCain won by nearly 100,000 votes, gaining 36% to 31% for Romney. Giuliani had 15% and Huckabee 14%. Giuliani gambled everything on winning Florida. His national and state leads collapsed in December; he won only 2% in South Carolina. Independents, who gave McCain his win in South Carolina, are excluded here, as only registered Republicans can vote. Florida is important, with 57 delegates awarded to the statewide winner (the state lost its other 57 delegates by breaking national rules and holding an early primary.) In the Democratic race Clinton won by a landslide, with 50% to 33% for Obama and 14% for Edwards. However the Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of all its delegates because it set its primary too early; candidates were not allowed to campaign there in any way, but were allowed to fundraise in the state. That decision has angered Florida Democrats and seriously weakened their morale for the fall elections. Voter behavior DEM exit poll GOP exit poll

"Tsunami Tuesday": Feb 5

Nearly half the country chooses its delegates on Feb. 5 in a complex maze of rules. The Democrats have a proportional system, and the GOP uses mostly winner-take-all.

Current polls show McCain leading in California, New York, New Jersey and other large primary states, except Georgia and Missouri, where Huckabee is strong. Utah, the Mormon stronghold, and his home state of Massachusetts are safe for Romney. His strategy is to focus on the caucus states where his local organizations can turn out supporters most effectively, especially Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia and Minnesota. Romney hopes to be competitive in several primary states, including Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee and Georgia.

Of the 22 states with Democratic contests, Clinton has leads in the polls in 7 of the 10 largest, including California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona, Missouri. Obama leads in his home state of Illinois, and in Georgia, with its large black vote; Alabama is close.

GOP Polls

• New York: McCain 32, Romney 14
• New Jersey: McCain 43, Romney 29
• California: McCain 33, Romney 24

Dem Polls

• New York: Clinton 50, Obama 27
• New Jersey: Clinton 49, Obama 37
• California: Clinton 45, Obama 33

Later primaries

Clinton and Obama strategists expect that the proportional representation rule for Democratic primaries means that Tsunami Tuesday will not end the race. In that case March 4, when both Ohio (161 delegates) and Texas (228 delegates) vote, become the the next critical date.

Enthusiasm

Polls show Americans are unusually focused on this year's election, more so than for any recent election at this time in the election-year cycle. The Gallup poll found in early February that 71% said they had given "quite a lot of thought" to the election, a number that Gallup called "extraordinarily high" for this time in the election cycle. The comparable rate in early 2004 was only 58%. Gallup gives four explanations. First, no incumbents are running for re-election, so both nominations are up for grabs. Second, this year's "cast of characters" has unique characteristics and appeal. For the first time in U.S. history major-party front-runners this deep into the process have included a woman, a black, a Mormon, and a Baptist minister. Third, the primary and caucus season occur much earlier. Fourth, the races themselves got underway much earlier than usual, with full-scale announcements and campaigns initiated a year ago or more.

Gallup research has shown that Democrats are in general more enthusiastic about their candidates in 2008 than are Republicans. Democrats have turned out in far larger and more enthusiastic rallies, and numbered far more supporters in the Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida contests, even though the parties were about evenly balanced in those states in 2000 and 2004. As 2008 opened the Democratic candidates have so far raised $223 million, compared with $152 million for Republican candidates.

A Rasmussen poll at the end of January found that 47% of Democrats say they are "passionately and deeply committed" to their candidate, compared to only 28% of Republicans. Among Democrats who are passionate about a candidate, 53% favor Clinton and 28% Obama. Among passionate Republicans, 34% support Romney, 23% Huckabee, 10% McCain and 10% Paul. Americans under 30 and those who earn less than $40,000 a year are more likely to be passionate about a candidate than older and higher-income Americans. 27% of all voters believe McCain is too old to be President, while 56%, disagree and say he is not too old for the job.

Issues

Issue: Economy For both parties, the warning signs of a possible economic downturn or recession put the economics issue higher on the agenda in early 2008. As Congress works toward a bipartisan stimulus package, the candidates have begun offering their own proposals. McCain has been doing much better among voters dissatisfied with Bush's performance on the economy. Those who are more satisfied prefer Romney.

Issue: Iraq For Democrats the central issue is the the depth of opposition to Bush's Iraq War; Republicans generally support Bush on Iraq. As of November 2007, polls on average show that over 60% of Americans believe that the war is not going well, and a central part of the 2008 campaigns have been each candidates' strategy to stabilize Iraq and set the stage for withdrawal for Iraq. Most Democratic candidates have stated that a withdrawal of troops is necessary to reduce the risk of further casualties of U.S. troops in Iraq, and will also help Iraqi forces become self-sufficient. Some Democratic candidates have stated that continuing U.S presence has abetted the rise of Al-Qaeda in Iraq with Senator Joe Biden stating "We must get our soldiers out of this civil war where they become justification for the Bush-fulfilling prophecy of Al-Qaeda in Iraq to flourish..." On the contrary, almost every candidate for the GOP nomination has supported President Bush's call for an extended presence in Iraq, stating that the troops should be allowed to finish their assignment and that an early withdrawal could precipitate a breakdown of Iraq's parliamentary government, allowing it to fall to influence from Iran or Al-Qaeda. An exception to this has been Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, who was the Libertarian Party's presidential nominee in 1988, who has consistently advocated for a non-interventionist foreign policy and a withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

Issue: Immigration A central issue for Republicans (but not Democrats) is the status of illegal immigrants, with a grass roots nativism hurting Giuliani. Debate goes on in the Republican party as to whether or not illegal immigrants should be granted a path to citizenship, although all candidates have stated their opposition towards businesses hiring them in America. Among the Democratic field, all candidates have stated a desire to allow a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, though each candidates' plans differ. Some have stated their support for a crackdown on businesses hiring undocumented workers. Huckabee came under heavy attack for his proposals in Arkansas to allow children who grew up in the state to obtain in-state tuition even if they entered illegally with their parents. Huckabee suddenly reversed positions and, along with Romney. took a hard line with talk of forcing illegals to return to Mexico. In the South Carolina primary, 26% of GOP voters said illegal immigration was the main issue; among this group Huckabee beat McCain 33%-24%. 52% of the state Republicans said illegals should be deported, and Huckabee beat McCain among this group by 34% to 26%. The 28% of GOP voters who want to give the illegals a path to citizenship gave McCain 44% of their vote, versus 31% for Huckabee.

The issues Democrats care about heightened voter turnout, but they have not differentiated the candidates. That is, there is very little correlation between which issues Democrats see as most important and who they have voted for. Thus health care is mentioned by 20-25% of Democrats as a top concern, but they split their votes same way as Democrats who do not rank the issue highly. For the Democrats personal qualities have been far more influential.

Issues have mattered more for Republicans. The Iraq issue hurt McCain in summer 2007, but started to help him in the fall when the public sensed gains in the war there due to the "surge" McCain championed. McCain also gains among Republicans who criticize Bush's handling of the economy, while those who praise Bush support Romney. Immigration has been Romney’s best issue, but the constituency viewing it as a high priority has been too small to carry a primary for him. In Florida, Romney had a 43% to 25% edge over McCain among voters who said immigration is the most important issue; however, they constituted only 16% of the voters.

Mechanics

The rules are complicated and differ for each state and each party.The campaign will have three stages. In January, come the preliminaries, with attention focused on the Iowa caucus (Jan. 3) and the New Hampshire primary (Jan 8), along with contests in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. Then comes Super Tuesday Feb 5, with 40% of the delegates chosen. After that a string of primaries will be held, which will become increasingly important if the races become deadlocked on Feb. 5. The nominees could possibly be undecided until the national conventions in August/September.

The Democratic party rules are that delegates are awarded to the candidate in proportion to their votes in the primary. In addition the Democrats have "superdelegates" who are party officials who automatically become delegates. The Republicans allow more complex rules. Several states (Florida, with a Jan. 29 primary, and New York and New Jersey with primaries on Feb. 5) have "winner take all" rules that magnify their importance.

Most states use primaries which are ordinary elections. Some are open only to party members; in other like New Hampshire, registered independents can vote in one or the other party primary.

The caucuses are a leftover from 19th century. In Iowa voters to go to a local school or meeting place; Republicans sign in with their vote and leave. Democrats must spend an hour or two in a "caucus" to register their preference. Supporters of candidates with under 15% at that caucus move to another candidate. The Democratic Iowa caucus is a mixture of discussion, debating, a little horse-trading, and some consensus-building between neighbors. Anything can happen, but the media will report on the distribution of support at the end of the evening. (The actual national delegates in Iowa will be chosen months later, and are few in number.)

Third parties choose their candidates at their own, smaller conventions that receive little coverage.

Interest groups

Labor unions

The New Deal Coalition forged by Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s dominated national politics until the mid-1960s. One key reason was the close alliance of the party with labor unions. Since the 1960s, however, union membership has fallen by 2/3. In the 1980s unions came under assault from business and the party was unable to help them. Unions in recent years have increased their activism in the election cycle, especially in terms of funding and get-out-the-vote campaigns.

In 2004 and 2006, unions spent a combined $561 million to help elect their preferred candidates (most of them Democrats). That is nearly a 50% increase over the $381 million spent on the previous two campaigns. However they are still outspent by business; in 2000, companies were responsible for three times as much spending as unions. By the 2006 election, companies and their employees spent $491 million on elections, compared with $264 million for labor unions. Labor spent $32 million on its own mailings and television and radio commercials for the 2004 and 2006 elections, a nearly fivefold jump over the previous four years. Polls show 74% of voters who belong to an AFL-CIO-affiliated union voted for the congressional candidate endorsed by their union in 2006, up from 70% in 2004 and 68% in 2002.

Candidates for the Democratic nomination

Top tier

• Hillary Clinton - Former First Lady (1993-2001) and Senator from New York since 2001
• Barack Obama - Senator from Illinois since 2004

Second tier

• Mike Gravel - Former Senator from Alaska (1969-1981)

Withdrawn candidates

• Joe Biden - Senator from Delaware since 1973, head of Senate Foreign Relations Committee
• Christopher Dodd - Senator from Connecticut since 1981
• John Edwards - Former Senator from South Carolina (1998-2004) and Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in 2004
• Dennis Kucinich - Congressman from Ohio
• Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico since 2003, Secretary of Energy from 1997-2001, Ambassador to the United Nations from 1997-1998

Candidates for the Republican nomination

Top tier

• Mike Huckabee - Governor of Arkansas 1996-2007
• John McCain - Senator from Arizona 1987-present, sought GOP nomination in 2000 losing to Bush
• Mitt Romney - Governor of Massachusetts, 2002-2007

Second tier

• Alan Keyes - Diplomat under Ronald Reagan and former Republican senatorial nominee from Illinois
• Ron Paul - Congressman from Texas 1997-present, Libertarian Party presidential nominee in 1988

Withdrawn candidates

• Sam Brownback - Senator from Kansas, 1996-present, endorsed McCain
• Jim Gilmore - Governor of Virginia, 1998-2002, currently GOP nominee for 2008 Virginia U.S. Senatorial Election
• Rudy Giuliani - Mayor of New York City 1994-2001
• Duncan Hunter - Congressman from California, 1981-present
• Tom Tancredo - Congressman from Colorado, 1999-present; endorsed Romney
• Fred Thompson - Senator from Tennessee, 1994-2003, television and film actor
• Tommy Thompson - Governor of Wisconsin 1987-2001, Secretary of Health and Human Services 2001-2005; endorsed Giuliani

Current newspaper and magazine reports

• Clinton
• Edwards
• Obama
• Giuliani
• Huckabee
• McCain
• Paul
• Romney

External links

• Rhodes Cook, "Super Tuesday," in Sabato's CrystalBall '08 Jan. 31, 2008
• exit polls, from MSNBC
• Delegate counts for major candidates; upcoming schedule
• Campaign journalism, statistical reports on media coverage