Arab Spring/Addendum

CPI denotes the Corruption Perception Index, which ranges from 0 for highly corrupt to 10 for totally transparent.
DI denotes Democracy Index which ranges from 0 for totalitarian to 10 for fully democratic.
GI denotes Gini index which is a number between 0 and 100 reflecting the degree of inequality of family income.
GDP/head figures are at purchasing power parity exchange rates using CIA World Factbook figures.

Arab national movements

(Situation on 21 December 2012}

(more detailed accounts are obtainable from the links to contemporary reports on the timelines subpage)

Algeria

Population 35m, 99% Sunni Muslim CPI 2010: 2.9, DI 2010/12: 3.4/3.4, unemployment rate: 9.9%, GDP/head: $7,300), OPEC member. Oil output 38% of GDP (official press service) (country profile)

The protests and strikes in January 2011 and after were mainly about living standards and corruption. President Bouteflika responded with cuts in food prices, and a promise to review the constitution. On 16 April, he announced that a commission would be created to draw up amendments to the constitution in order to make it more democratic. In September he announced reforms to permit the operation of private radio and television stations. In the election held in May 2012 the mainly secularist National Liberation Front - which has ruled Algeria since independence from France in the early 1960s - won 220 seats, the National Democratic Rally came second with 68 seats in the National People's Assembly. The Islamist Green Alliance won only 48 seats.

Bahrain

Population 1.2 m, 81% Muslim, CPI 2010: 4.9, DI 2010: 3.5, GDP/head: $40,300 Oil output 28% of GDP (BBC country profile)(Freedom House 2012 Countries at the Crossroads report)

A monarchy in which the king is the supreme authority and members of the Sunni Muslim ruling family hold the main political and military posts. There are long-running tensions between the Sunni authorities and the Shia Muslim majority.
Peaceful protests in February 20ll were brutally crushed, by the security forces, whose conduct was the subject of an adverse report by the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights. In June 2011, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa appointed a panel of human rights experts to examine the events of earlier in that year. Their report condemned the conduct of the security forces, and recommended measures to bring those responsible to account and to guard against further abuses. The King promised to adopt the report's recommendations, but there have been reports of continued human rights violations in 2012. In the course of 2012, the courts imposed multiple jail sentences, for "illegal activities", upon activists who had been involved in protests.

Egypt

Freedom House score
	Civil	Political
	Liberties	Rights
	(0 to 60)	(0 to 40)
2010	20	7
2011	19	5
2012	24	11

Population 82m, 90% Sunni Muslim, CPI 2010: 3.1, DI 2010/12: 3.1/4.0; GDP/head: $6,200 Oil output 12% of GDP (Egypt State Information Service) (BBC country profile) (Freedom House 2012 report)

In February 2011, mass protests, during which at least 846 people were killed, ended the 30-year presidency of Hosni Mubarak, and he was replaced by the "Supreme Council of the Armed Forces" (SCAF) led by Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. Protests continued as a result of tension between the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the youth movements that launched the January 25th Tahrir Square uprising . A referendum was held in March that approved a number of temporary constitutional changes including the commitment to hold an early election.

Parliamentary elections were held in three stages between November 2011 and January 2012. A coalition led by the Islamist Freedom and Justice Party won 47 percent, or 235 seats in the 498-seat parliament and the Salafist al-Nour Party, 19 per cent, or 96 seats. Voting results for individual parties were: the Freedom and Justice Party, 127 seats; the al-Nour Party, 96 seats; the liberal Al Wafd, Egyptian Bloc parties and Revolution Continues parties, 36 and 33 and 7 seats. Smaller numbers of seats were won by 10 other parties, and 21 parties that were excluded because they failed to get the required 0.5 per cent of the national vote. The leading Freedom and Justice Party (Al-Hurriyya wa al-‘Adala), which was formed by the Muslim Brotherhood had campaigned for parliamentary governance, with legislation monitored by a constitutional court in order to ensure its compatibility with Islamic principles of justice. It has appointed Saad al-Katatni as Speaker of the new assembly. The Freedom and Justice Party also gained a majority of the seats in the Shura (upper house) in elections held in February. In May 2012, in the first round of a presidential election, Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, received 24.3 per cent of the vote and Ahmed Shafiq, the former Prime minister, 23.3 percent. In the second round in June 2012, Mohamed Morsi was elected President.

On 14 June the Egyptian Supreme Court declared the parliament unconstitutional, and on 17th June the SCAF imposed constitutional changes that gave it control of legislation and the budget until a new parliament is elected. The SCAF assumed virtually all of the powers formerly assigned the assembly and the presidency.

Before the parliament was found unconstitutional, it had elected a Constituent Assembly with a remit to draft a new constitution. (In fact it had done so twice—the first body was struck down in March by an administrative court and a new one was formed just days before the presidential election). The new constitution is to be put to referendum within 15 days from being drafted and new parliamentary elections are to be called within a month from the approval of the new national charter. Opinion poll results indicate a popular (54%) preference for the modest rôle of Islam in politics that it exerts in Turkey, and a substantial (32%) minority in favour of the more obtrusive rôle that it exerts in Saudi Arabia. Although 66 per cent of respondents wanted Sharia to be the basis of Egyptian law, 83 per cent wanted it to be a form of Sharia that is adapted to modern conditions .

In August 2012 President Morsi appointed Hisham Qandil as Prime Minister and Hussein Tantawi (former interim head of state) as Defence Minister[1], and dismissed Hussein Tantawi, and several senior generals, appointed Mahmoud Mekki, as vice-president, and cancelled the constitutional amendments that had been issued by the military estricting presidential powers. On 22 November he issued a decree asserting absolute control over legislative and constitutional issues, arousing the opposition of the judges of the constitutional court. Also in late November, the constituent assembly approved a controversial draft of the country's new constitution in a session boycotted by most liberals, secularists and Christians. Those developments triggered mass protests in Tahrir Square. On 8 December President Morsi rescinded his decree of 22 November but insisted that the referendum on the constitution would go ahead as scheduled.[2]. In a referendum in December 2012 the final draft constitution was approved by 64 per cent of voters with a voting turnout of 33 percent of the electorate. Parliamentary elections are to follow during the first two months of 2003,

The uprising triggered substantial capital outflows, a decline in tourism revenue, and there was a fall in economic growth from 5 percent in FY2009/10 to less than 2 percent in FY2010/11. The unemployment rate increased to 12.6 percent from about 9 percent before the revolution. Reduced tax revenue and increased public spending have increased the budget deficit, which reached 11.8 percent of GDP (excluding grants) in FY2011/12. Growth is expected to recover gradually as confidence grows, to reach about 3 percent in FY2012/13 . In November 2012 the IMF reached staff-level agreement with Egypt on a $4.8bn stand-by arrangement, conditional upon fiscal reforms, including a reduction in the budget deficit from almost 11 percent in 2011/12 to 8.5 percent of GDP in 2013/14.

Jordan

Population 6.5m, 92% Muslim, CPI 2010:4.7, DI 2010/12: 3.7/3.9, GI: 38, unemployment rate: 13.4%, GDP/head: $5,400 (Jordan Government website) (BBC country profile)

In February 2011, King Abdullah responded to large-scale, but mainly peaceful, protests by sacking his Cabinet and appointing a new Prime Minister, former army general Marouf Bakhit. A powerful Islamist opposition group, the Islamic Action Front has called for the dissolution of parliament and has criticised the king's efforts to initiate reform. Small-scale protests have continued,

.

Lebanon

Population 4m, 60% Muslim, 39% Christian, CPI 2010: 2.5,DI 2010/12: 5.8/5.3, unemployment rate:9.2 %, GDP/head: $14,400(BBC country profile)

The Arab Spring may have added impetus to previous protests against the constitutional reservation of government posts for members of rival sects. The government collapsed in January 2011 for apparently unrelated reasons, and, after lengthy negotiations, a new government was formed in June. Future developments in Lebanon may be expected to be influenced by events in Syria.

Libya

Freedom House score
	Civil	Political
	Liberties	Rights
	(0 to 60)	(0 to 40)
2010	7	1
2011	7	1
2012	14	3

Population 6.6m, 97% Muslim, CPI 2010: 2.3, DI 2010/12: 1.9/3.6, GI: 36, GDP/head: $14,000), OPEC member, Oil output 62% of GDP (Former National Transition Council website)(National Council website) (BBC country profile) (Freedom House 2012 report) (Reports of the United Nations Support Mission)

Protests that started in February 2011 developed into a civil war (as described in Civil war in Libya) that ended with the death of Colonel Gadaffi on 12th October 2011. Control of the anti-government forces during the civil war had been formally assumed by an National Transitional Council, which was formally recognised as the legitimate representative body of the Libyan people, at first by the United States, Britain and France, and subsequently by nearly all of the world's governments. Following successful elections in July 2012, , the National Transitional Council handed over its functions to a democratically elected, General National Congress. 39 out of 80 seats that were reserved for political parties were won by the National Forces Alliance, led by ex-interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril, and 17 going to the Muslim Brotherhood's party. In October 2012, the Congress approved the formation of a transitional government led by Prime Minister Ali Zidan. The Congress is to appoint a constitution drafting commission with the task of drafting a new constitution by early 2013. The remaining stages of Libya's planned transition programme are a national referendum on the draft constitution, further parliamentary elections and the formation of a fresh government.

Heavily armed militia groups that had formed during the civil have since remained active, and some are relied upon for local security by the central government. However there continue to be public displays of weapons, attacks on international targets, and occasional armed clashes between rival groups.

By the end of the civil war, oil and natural gas production - which had accounted for more than 70 percent of GDP - had virtually ceased, and the non-oil economy had suffered severe damage. GDP is estimated to have fallen by 60 per cent and there was a major budget deficit; but, after a strong rebound as oil output recovered in 2012, growth is expected to exceed 16 per cent in 2013 and the budget is expected to return to surplus.

Mali

Population 15.5 million; 90 per cent Moslem; DI (2010) 6.36.; GDP/head $1,100; (Médecins Sans Frontières profile)
The current conflict in Mali was largely the consequence of developments that took place before the onset of the Arab Spring. There had been political tension between the Tuareg nomads of the, mainly desert, northern region and the African government in the south - and the secular MNLA (Mouvement National de liberation de l'Azawad) had been seeking independence for the region. An Islamic terrorist organisation known as AQIM (Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) had been operating in neighbouring Algeria, and a separate Islamic militia called Ansar al-Din (Defenders of the Faith) had been active in Mali. The conflict erupted in 2012 when a well-armed coalition of those groups attempted an invasion of the southern region of Mali. Their arms were believed to have been augmented by returning Tuaregs who had been serving in Gaddafi's army in Libya, and their objective was widely assumed to be to turn the whole of Mali into a Taliban-style country that would serve as a base for Al Qaeda terrorism.

In April 2012, the United Nations Security Council had expressed concern about the situation in Mali. It condemned the "continued attacks, looting and seizure of territory carried out by rebel groups in the North", called upon the rebels to immediately cease all violence and urged all parties to seek a peaceful solution through political dialogue. At the same time the Council approved the Mali government's return to civilian rule following a military coup. In October 2012 the council called upon member states, to help Mali's armed forces to "uphold the unity and territorial integrity of Mali and to reduce the threat posed by AQIM and affiliated groups" . On 11 January 2013 (following the advice of the Secretary General that active military intervention may prove necessary ), the French government sent a military contingent to Mali in response to an appeal from its President

Morocco

Population 40m, 99% Muslim, CPI 2010: 3.4, DI 2010/12: 3.8/3.8, unemployment rate:9.8%, GDP/head: $4,800 (Moroccan Government website)

Protests have been mainly peaceful, and the response of the security forces has been generally moderate. Constitutional changes were introduced in July 2011 that reduce King Mohammed's near-absolute powers and require him to name a prime minister from the largest party elected to parliament as head of the executive branch. They were rejected as inadequate by the "February 20" protest movement. In a parliamentary election held in November 2011, the moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party won 107 out of 395 seats, and its coalition partner, the nationalist Istiqlal party, came second, with 60 seats. The leader of the Justice and Development Party, Abdelilah Benkirane was declared Prime Minister.

Oman

Population 3m, 75% Muslim, CPI 2010: 5.3,DI 2010/12/3.3: 2.9, unemployment rate: 15%, GDP/head: $23,600, Oil output 42% of GDP(Human Rights Watch report 2012)(BTI 2012 country report)

There were protests in March 2011 over unemployment, food prices and corruption. The Sultan responded by promising to give legislative powers to Oman's parliament.

Saudi Arabia

Population 26m, 100% Muslim, CPI 2010: 4.7, DI 2010/12: 1.8/1.8, GI: 32, unemployment rate: 10.8%, GDP/head: $24,200), OPEC member, Oil output 42% of GDP (BBC country profile)

Protests have been few and local, confined to Shi'ite areas in the east. There have been no mass pro-democracy protests and opposition movements are banned. In September 2011 the King announced that women are to be allowed to vote and to become members of the Advisory Council.

Syria

(population 23m, 90% Muslim, CPI 2010: 2.5, DI 2010/12 2.3/2.0, unemployment rate: 8.3%, GDP/head: $4,800, Oil output 21% of GDP (Syrian Arab News Agency) (BBC country profile)

In March 2011, Syrian security forces fired on unarmed protesters. A report by representatives of the United Nations High Commission on Human Rights called upon the government to "immediately put an end to the gross human rights violations, including the excessive use of force against demonstrators and the killing of protestors, torture and ill-treatment of detainees and enforced disappearances; halt violations of economic, social and cultural rights". In July, army defectors created the Free Syrian Army, but they did not at that time offer armed resistance to government forces. By mid October, clashes between loyalist and defected army units were being reported fairly regularly. On the 2nd of November 2011, the Syrian government accepted an Arab League proposal designed to put an end to the conflict. However, the artillery bombardment of the city of Homs continued from the next day . On November 12, Syria was suspended from membership of the League and its members were called upon to impose sanctions against it. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation then added its support for the action of the Arab League and condemnation of the actions of the Syrian government . On 22 November 2912, the United Nations General Assembly Human Rights Committee issued a condemnation of "the continued grave and systematic human rights violations by the Syrian authorities, such as arbitrary executions, excessive use of force and the persecution and killing of protesters and human rights defenders", and supported its accusations by a detailed report . Draft resolutions of the Security Council demanding a ceasefire were at first vetoed by Russia, but in April it agreed on two resolutions condemning the violence in Syria and calling on the Syrian government to implement a six-point peace plan. A subsequent report by the Secretary-General indicated that the resolutions had been ignored . Syrian opposition groups held a two-day meeting in Cairo on 2-3 July 2012. Agreement was reached on support for the Free Syrian Army, the dissolution of the ruling Baath Party and the exclusion of Assad or other senior regime figures from a place in the transition, but the groups remained divided on other key issues.

Tunisia

Freedom House score
	Civil	Political
	Liberties	Rights
	(0 to 60)	(0 to 40)
2010	18	5
2011	18	5
2012	33	25

Population 10.6m, 98% Muslim, CPI 2010: 4.3, DI 2010: 2.8,unemployment rate: 14%, GDP/head: $9,400 (Tunisian Government Portal) (BBC country profile) (news link) Freedom House report 2012

The Arab Spring started in a small Tunisian town in December 2010, after a young stallholder, Mohamed Bouazizi, set fire to himself in protest at his abusive treatment by the police. Riots, in the course of which around 300 people died, forced the resignation of President Zine al-Abidine Mebazaa. The political police and state security apparatus, which were blamed for many human rights abuses, were disbanded.

Elections of an interim assembly, which is to draw up a constitution, were held on 24 October 2011. The winning party was expected to be previously outlawed Islamist party, Nahda ("Renaissance"). Despite Islamic connections, Nahda campaigns for democratic governance, and does not seek to impose Sharia law. (Its adoption as a candidate of the female Suad Abdel-Rahim, who does not wear a veil, may be an indication of their moderation in other respects.) With 192 seats out of the 217 total seats in the Constituent Assembly declared by 27th October, the Ennahda party led with 78 seats, the secularist centre-left Congress for the Republic came second with 26 seats, and the secularist Aridha Chaabia (Popular Petition for Freedom) came a close third with 25 seats, the secular social democratic party Ettakatol came fourth with 18 seats, and the secularist Progressive Democratic Party had 10 seats. A government was formed, consisting of a coalition of Nahda with the Ettaka and the Congress for the Republic, but excluding the Popular Petition . There are reported to be stresses within the coalition arising from the fragmentation of the secular parties in face of the more coherent Islamist movement .

Economic growth fell from 3 percent in 2010 to an estimated minus 2 percent in 2011 as a result of declines in tourism, foreign direct investment and remittances from Tunisians working abroad. Some signs of a rebound have emerged in 2012, with a 36 per cent increase in tourism and a 45 percent recovery in foreign direct investment GDP growth is expected to reach 2.7 per cent in 2012 and 3.3 per cent in 2013. Substantial budget and trade deficits are likely to persist, however, and the unemployment rate is likely to remain over 15 per cent,

Yemen

Population 24m, 99% Muslim, CPI 2010: 2.2, DI 2010/12: 2.6/2.6, unemployment rate: 35%, GDP/head: $2,700, Oil output 32% of GDP (Yemen Governmemt website) (BBC country profile)

The Yemeni uprising in January 2011 took the form of peaceful protests about unemployment, malnutrion and corruption, but it was violently repulsed by the country's armed forces, and hundreds were killed. A bitter power struggle also developed between the president's clan and their rivals, the Bani al-Ahmar. An incident in March, when 53 peaceful demonstrators were killed, led to the resignation of a number of Ministers, Ambassadors and other members of the ruling party, and the defection of General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar (who promised to use his armoured brigade troops to protect the demonstrators). In August 2011, President Saleh promised to step down and to hold free and direct elections in 2013[3], but the demonstrations continued. In September 2011, a United Nations mission reported that protesters were trying to preserve the peaceful character of their demonstrations, but were being met with the excessive and disproportionate use of lethal force. The mission considered that the growing activity of "armed elements" among the demonstrators presented the danger of a cycle of escalating violence.

In November 2011 there were UN-brokered negtiations for the relinquishment of power by President Ali Abdullah Saleh, to be followed by early elections, and on the 24th of that month he handed over power to his deputy, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who called a presidential election on February 21 2012 and was then elected unopposed.

Civil war in Libya

In mid-February 2011, government forces opened fire on demonstrators in the Libyan second city of Benghazi. A bitter conflict ensued in which the rebels took control of the city. The government responded with an aerial bombardment that caused thousands of casualties. There was international outrage at the brutality of its actions and, on 18th March, the United Nations Security Council responded to the Arab League's request for the imposition of a no-fly zone with a resolution that authorised member states to to take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of attack. In the course of the following week, air attacks by the US, British and French and other NATO aircraft destroyed the Libyan air force. In the following months there developed a civil war between government forces based in Tripoli in the west of Libya and rebel forces initially based in Benghazi in the east. After six months of fighting with continuing NATO air support, rebel forces entered Tripoli, then the principal government-held city. Fierce fighting continued after the fall of Tripoli, however, until the fall of the remaining government-held town of Sirte and the killing of Colonel Gaddafi in October 2011.

Democratic change

The Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index[4][5]

(which ranges from 0 for totalitarian to 10 for fully democratic)

	September 2008	November 2010	December 2011
Algeria	3.3	3.4	3.4
Bahrain	3.4	3.5	2.9
Egypt	3.9	3.1	4.0
Jordan	3.9	3.7	3.9
Libya	2.0	1.9	3.6
Morroco	3.9	3.8	3.8
Oman	3.0	2.9	3.3
Syria	2.2	2.3	2.0
Tunisia	3.0	2.8	5.5
Yemen	3.0	2.6	2.6

National and international reactions

Overview

There is no evidence of non-Arab influences upon the Arab Spring uprisings, and every indication that they came as a sudden surprise to all who were not directly involved. There were supportive reactions from many western governments, however, and in May, the G8 countries promised $20bn (£12bn) of loans and aid to Tunisia and Egypt over the following two years and suggested more would be available if the countries continued on the path to democracy. However, there was no support for military intervention until the news of Libyan air force attacks upon civilians in areas held by rebels. Expressions of condemnation were followed by calls for protective action. A crucial factor in international support of a military response was an Arab League recommendation to the United Nations for a no-fly zone. The Libya resolutions 1970 and 1973 that were passed by the Security Council have been described as "the most wide-ranging that it had passed for more than 20 years". . The main support for NATO military intervention in Libya came from the governments of the United States, France and Britain.

The United Nations

On February 2011, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 1970 , imposing an arms embargo on Libya and freezing the assets of its leaders. On March 17, it adopted resolution 1973 (2011) by a vote of 10 in favour to none against, with 5 abstentions (Brazil, China, Germany, India, Russian Federation), authorising Member States, "to take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of attack in the country, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory" . In September 2011 it was decided to create a United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) to assist its transition to representative government.

The Deauville Partnership

The Deauville Partnership was launched at a G8 summit in May 2011. Its purpose was set out by the G8 foreign ministers as promoting the transition to democracy by:- strengthening of the rule of law, supporting civil societies, developing education and vocational training, strengthening economic development, and supporting regional and global integration. In its support, ten International Financial Institutions' (IFIs) have agreed to establish an Arab Financing Facility for Infrastructure (AFFI), and to set up a new coordination platform at the staff operational level. The current Partnership Countries are Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, and others are being encouraged to join.

The European Union

Concerning Libya, the European Council declared its commitment to "the full implementation" of Security Council Resolutions, but there was disagreement about military intervention. Interventin by Britain and France was opposed by Germany and was given only reluctant support by Italy The European Commission has made available EUR €30 million for humanitarian aid in Libya and to refugees at the Tunisian and Egyptian borders. In support of their reconstruction, the EU has offered the Arab countries "Partnerships for Democracy and Shared Prosperity” conditional upon evidence of concrete progress toward the establishment of democracy, human rights, social justice, good governance and the rule of law .

NATO

On March 27 2011, NATO decided to take on the whole military operation in Libya under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973. The stated purpose of Operation Unified Protector was "to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas under threat of attack . Of the its 28 members, 14 took military action in support of the uprising, 8 of which took part in ground attacks. In the first three months NATO aircraft flew over 13,000 sorties and by September there is reported to have a been total of 22,817 sorties, including 8,560 strike sorties. NATO's operations in Libya ended on 31 October 2011.

USA

On 17 May 2011, President Obama announced a new chapter in American diplomacy. In addition to the pursuit of existing policy objectives, such as countering terrorism, it would be be the policy of the United States to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy. But, noting that the people themselves who had launched the protest movements, he emphasised that it should be "the people themselves that must ultimately determine their outcome". A CNN/Opinion Research Poll indicated approval by a majority of Americans as well as opposition by a substantial minority.

Russia

In a condemnation of the UN resolution on Libya as comparable to "medieval calls for crusades" by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (repudiated, however, by President Dmitry Medvedev) On 7 March Russian foreign minister Serghei Lavrov stressed Moscow's opposition to military intervention in Libya: "we don't see how any form of external intervention could possibly solve the Libyan crisis, especially if it were military in nature. Libyans need to solve their own problems.

China

NATO air strikes were also condemned by the governments of China, Venezuela and Cuba..