Arab Spring/Addendum

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This addendum is a continuation of the article Arab Spring.

CPI denotes the Corruption Protection Index[1], which ranges from 0 for highly corrupt to 10 for totally transparent.
DI denotes Democracy Index [2] which ranges from 0 for totalitarian to 10 for fully democratic.
GI denotes Gini index which is a number between 0 and 100 reflecting the degree of inequality of family income[3].
GDP/head figures are at purchasing power parity exchange rates using CIA World Factbook figures[4].

Arab national movements

(Situation on 29 October 2011}

Algeria

Population 35m, 99% Sunni Muslim CPI 2010: 2.9, DI 2010: 3.4, unemployment rate: 9.9%, GDP/head: $7,300), OPEC member. Oil output 38% of GDP (official press service) (country profile)

The protests and strikes in January 2011 and after were mainly about living standards and corruption. President Bouteflika responded with cuts in food prices, and a promise to review the constitution. On 16 April, he announced that a commission would be created to draw up amendments to the constitution in order to make it more democratic. In September he announced reforms to permit the operation of private radio and television stations.

Bahrain

Population 1.2 m, 81% Muslim, CPI 2010: 4.9, DI 2010: 3.5, unemployment rate: 3.6%, GDP/head: $40,300 Oil output 28% of GDP (BBC country profile)

A constitutional monarchy with an elected legislative assembly. Majority Shi'ites are demanding more power from Sunni-led government. Protest movements have been crushed by force, [5], and the treatment of human rights protestors was the subject of an adverse report by the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights[6]

Egypt

Population 82m, 90% Muslim, CPI 2010: 3.1, DI 2010: 3.1,unemployment rate: 9.7%, GDP/head: $6,200 Oil output 12% of GDP (Egypt State Information Service) (country profile)

In February 2011, mass protests, during which at least 846 people were killed, ended the 30-year presidency of Hosni Mubarak, and he was replaced by the "Supreme Council of the Armed Forces" (SCAF)[7] led by Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. Protests continued as a result of tension between the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the youth movements that launched the January 25th Tahrir Square uprising [8]. A referendum was held in March that approved a number of temporary constitutional changes including the commitment to hold an early election[9].

Parliamentary elections are now due to take place in three stages between November 2011 and January 2012, and a presidential election is expected to take place in March or April 2012. The parliamentary elections are expected to be contested by scores of political parties [10] in a struggle for power between the country's secularists and its islamists[8]. Egypt's largest Islamist party is the Freedom and Justice Party (Al-Hurriyya wa al-‘Adala), which was formed by the Muslim Brotherhood[11][12] in May 2011, and which campaigns for parliamentary governance, with legislation monitored by a constitutional court in order to ensure its compatibility with Islamic principles of justice. There are six other Islamist parties, one of which is Sufist and two of which are Salafist, and ten broadly secular parties. When a parliament is elected, its principal task will be the drafting of a new constitution. A contribution to their deliberations is the Al-Azhar Document [13], prepared by a group of academics, which proposes the creation of a "modern democratic state" in which "Islamic jurisprudence is the main source for the legislation" and which adopts "the Islamic precepts of Shura (consultation)".

The uprising has triggered substantial capital outflows, a decline in tourism revenue, remittances, and a fall in economic growth from 5 percent in FY2009/10 to between 1 and 2 percent in FY2010/11. Unemployment, that was already high, is expected to increase. Growth is expected to recover gradually up to 4 percent in FY2011/12, assuming that confidence improves following the elections[14].

Jordan

Population 6.5m, 92% Muslim, CPI 2010:4.7, DI 2010: 3.7, GI: 38, unemployment rate: 13.4%, GDP/head: $5,400 (Jordan Government website) (BBC country profile)

In February 2011, King Abdullah responded to large-scale, but mainly peaceful, protests by sacking his Cabinet and appointing a new Prime Minister, former army general Marouf Bakhit[15]. A powerful Islamist opposition group, the Islamic Action Front[16] has called for the dissolution of parliament and has criticised the king's efforts to initiate reform. In February, smaller-scale protests continued through the summer, and King Abdullah replaced Prime Minister Bakhit with Awn al-Khasawneh, a judge at the International Court of Justice.

Lebanon

Population 4m, 60% Muslim, 39% Christian, CPI 2010: 2.5,DI 2010: 5.8, unemployment rate:9.2 %, GDP/head: $14,400(BBC country profile)

The Arab Spring may have added impetus to previous protests against the constitutional reservation of government posts for members of rival sects[17]. The government collapsed in January 2011 for apparently unrelated reasons[18], and, after lengthy negotiations, a new government was formed in June[19]. Future developments in Lebanon may be expected to be influenced by events in Syria.

Libya

Population 6.6m, 97% Muslim, CPI 2010: 2.3, DI 2010: 1.9, GI: 36, unemployment rate: 20.7%, GDP/head: $14,000), OPEC member, Oil output 62% of GDP (National Transition Council website) (BBC country profile)

Protests that started in February 2011 developed into a civil war (as described in Civil war in Libya) that ended with the death of Colonel Gadaffi on 12th October 2011. Control of the anti-government forces during the civil war had been formally assumed by an National Transitional Council, which was formally recognised as the legitimate representative body of the Libyan people, at first by the United States, Britain and France, and subsequently by nearly all of the world's governments. In August 2011, the Council issued a constitutional declaration[20] that proposed principles and procedures for a transition to constitutional government. Under its terms, a Constitutional Conference is to be elected by June 2012 which will draft a new constitution for popular approval by plebiscite; and parliamentary elections are to follow within six months.

By the end of the civil war, oil and natural gas production - which had accounted for more than 70 percent of GDP - had virtually ceased, the non-oil economy had suffered severe damage, and GDP is believed to have fallen by over 50 percent[21].

Morocco

Population 40m, 99% Muslim, CPI 2010: 3.4, DI 2010: 3.8, unemployment rate:9.8%, GDP/head: $4,800 (Moroccan Government website)

Protests have been mainly peaceful, and the response of the security forces has been generally moderate. Constitutional changes were introduced in July 2011 that reduce King Mohammed's near-absolute powers and name a prime minister from the largest party elected to parliament. as head of the executive branch. They were rejected as inadequate by the "February 20" protest movement[22].

Oman

Population 3m, 75% Muslim, CPI 2010: 5.3,DI 2010: 2.9, unemployment rate: 15%, GDP/head: $23,600, Oil output 42% of GDP

There were protests in March 2011 over unemployment, food prices and corruption. The Sultan responded by promising to give legislative powers to Oman's parliament.

Saudi Arabia

Population 26m, 100% Muslim, CPI 2010: 4.7, DI 2010: 1.8, GI: 32, unemployment rate: 10.8%, GDP/head: $24,200), OPEC member, Oil output 42% of GDP (BBC country profile)

Protests have been few and local, confined to Shi'ite areas in the east. There have been no mass pro-democracy protests and opposition movements are banned. In September 2011 the King announced that women are to be allowed to vote and to become members of the Advisory Council[23].

Syria

Population 23m, 90% Muslim, CPI 2010: 2.5, DI 2010: 2.3, unemployment rate: 8.3%, GDP/head: $4,800, Oil output 21% of GDP (Syrian Arab News Agency) (BBC country profile)

In response to the mass protests that started in March 2011, Syrian security forces have fired on unarmed protesters and about 3,000 civilians have been killed, according to United Nations estimates. A report by representatives of the United Nations High Commission on Human Rights has called upon the government to "immediately put an end to the gross human rights violations, including the excessive use of force against demonstrators and the killing of protestors, torture and ill-treatment of detainees and enforced disappearances; halt violations of economic, social and cultural rights"[24]. In July, army defectors created the Free Syrian Army[25], but they did not at that time offer armed resistance to government forces. In September, a group of Syrian activists have formed a "Syrian National Council" representing a united front in opposition to President Assad[26]. On October 15 President Assad appointed a committee to draft a new constitution that is to be introduced within four months [27]. On the 2nd of November 2011, the Syrian government accepted an Arab League proposal designed to put an end to the conflict[28]. The proposal was for Syria to withdraw all tanks and armored vehicles from the streets, stop violence against protesters, release all political prisoners and begin a dialogue with the opposition within two weeks. Syria also agreed to allow journalists, rights groups and Arab League representatives to monitor the situation in Syria. However, the artillery bombardment of the city of Homs continued from the next day. [29]. On November 12, Syria was suspended from membership of the League and its members were called upon to impose sanctions against it[30]. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation then added its support for the action of the Arab League and condemnation of the actions of the Syrian government [31]

Tunisia

Population 10.6m, 98% Muslim, CPI 2010: 4.3, DI 2010: 2.8,unemployment rate: 14%, GDP/head: $9,400 (Tunisian Government Portal) (country profile) (news link)

The Arab Spring started in a small Tunisian town in December 2010, after a young stallholder, Mohamed Bouazizi, set fire to himself in protest at his abusive treatment by the police[32]. Riots, in the course of which around 300 people died, forced the resignation of President Zine al-Abidine Mebazaa. The political police and state security apparatus, which were blamed for many human rights abuses, were disbanded.

Elections of an interim assembly, which is to draw up a constitution, were held on 24 October 2011. The winning party was expected to be previously outlawed Islamist party, Ennahda ("Renaissance")[33][34]. Despite Islamic connections, Ennahda campaigns for democratic governance, and does not seek to impose Sharia law. (Its adoption as a candidate of the female Suad Abdel-Rahim, who does not wear a veil, may be an indication of their moderation in other respects[35].) With 192 seats out of the 217 total seats in the Constituent Assembly declared by 27th October, the Ennahda party led with 78 seats, the secularist centre-left Congress for the Republic came second with 26 seats, and the secularist Aridha Chaabia (Popular Petition for Freedom)[36] came a close third with 25 seats, the secular social democratic party Ettakatol came fourth with 18 seats, and the secularist Progressive Democratic Party had 10 seats[37]. The final share of seats gained by Ennahda was 41 per cent, prompting the presumption that it would form the major component of a coalition led by Rachid Ghannouchi as Prime Minister.

Economic growth is expected to fall from 3.7 percent in 2010 to 1.3 percent in 2011 as a result of declines in tourism, foreign direct investment and remittances from Tunisians working abroad[14].

Yemen

Population 24m, 99% Muslim, CPI 2010: 2.2, DI 2010: 2.6, unemployment rate: 35%, GDP/head: $2,700, Oil output 32% of GDP (Yemen Governmemt website) (BBC country profile)

The Yemeni uprising in January 2011 took the form of peaceful protests about unemployment, malnutrion and corruption, but it was violently repulsed by the country's armed forces, and hundreds were killed. A bitter power struggle also developed between the president's clan and their rivals, the Bani al-Ahmar[38]. An incident in March, when 53 peaceful demonstrators were killed, led to the resignation of a number of Ministers, Ambassadors and other members of the ruling party, and the defection of General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar (who promised to use his armoured brigade troops to protect the demonstrators). In August 2011, President Saleh promised to step down and to hold free and direct elections in 2013[2], but the demonstrations continued. In September 2011, a United Nations mission reported that protesters were trying to preserve the peaceful character of their demonstrations, but were being met with the excessive and disproportionate use of lethal force. The mission considered that the growing activity of "armed elements" among the demonstrators presented the danger of a cycle of escalating violence[39].

An Al-Qaida terrrorist organisation is reported to be based in Yemen[40], but has not taken part in the protests.

Civil war in Libya

In mid-February 2011, government forces opened fire on demonstrators in the Libyan second city of Benghazi. A bitter conflict ensued in which the rebels took control of the city. The government responded with an aerial bombardment that caused thousands of casualties. There was international outrage at the brutality of its actions and, on 18th March, the United Nations Security Council responded to the Arab League's request for the imposition of a no-fly zone[41] with a resolution that authorised member states to to take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of attack. In the course of the following week, air attacks by the US[42], British and French and other NATO aircraft destroyed the Libyan air force[43]. In the following months there developed a civil war between government forces based in Tripoli in the west of Libya and rebel forces initially based in Benghazi in the east. After six months of fighting with continuing NATO air support, rebel forces entered Tripoli[44], then the principal government-held city. Fierce fighting continued after the fall of Tripoli, however, until the fall of the remaining government-held town of Sirte and the killing of Colonel Gaddafi[45] in October 2011.

National and international reactions

Overview

There is no evidence of non-Arab influences upon the Arab Spring uprisings, and every indication that they came as a sudden surprise to all who were not directly involved. There were supportive reactions from many western governments, however, and in May, the G8 countries promised $20bn (£12bn) of loans and aid to Tunisia and Egypt over the following two years and suggested more would be available if the countries continued on the path to democracy. However, there was no support for military intervention until the news of Libyan air force attacks upon civilians in areas held by rebels. Expressions of condemnation were followed by calls for protective action. A crucial factor in international support of a military response was an Arab League recommendation to the United Nations for a no-fly zone[41]. The Libya resolutions 1970 and 1973 that were passed by the Security Council have been described as "the most wide-ranging that it had passed for more than 20 years". [46]. The main support for NATO military intervention in Libya came from the governments of the United States, France and Britain.

The United Nations

On February 2011, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 1970 [47], imposing an arms embargo on Libya and freezing the assets of its leaders. On March 17, it adopted resolution 1973 (2011) by a vote of 10 in favour to none against, with 5 abstentions (Brazil, China, Germany, India, Russian Federation), authorising Member States, "to take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of attack in the country, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory" [48]. In September 2011 it was decided to create a United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) to assist its transition to representative government[49].

The Deauville Partnership

The Deauville Partnership was launched at a G8 summit in May 2011[50]. Its purpose was set out by the G8 foreign ministers as promoting the transition to democracy by:- strengthening of the rule of law, supporting civil societies, developing education and vocational training, strengthening economic development, and supporting regional and global integration[51]. In its support, ten International Financial Institutions' (IFIs) have agreed to establish an Arab Financing Facility for Infrastructure (AFFI)[52], and to set up a new coordination platform at the staff operational level[53]. The current Partnership Countries are Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, and others are being encouraged to join.

The European Union

Concerning Libya, the European Council declared its commitment to "the full implementation" of Security Council Resolutions,[54] but there was disagreement about military intervention. Interventin by Britain and France was opposed by Germany [55] and was given only reluctant support by Italy[56] The European Commission has made available EUR €30 million for humanitarian aid in Libya and to refugees at the Tunisian and Egyptian borders. In support of their reconstruction, the EU has offered the Arab countries "Partnerships for Democracy and Shared Prosperity” conditional upon evidence of concrete progress toward the establishment of democracy, human rights, social justice, good governance and the rule of law [57].

NATO

On March 27 2011, NATO decided to take on the whole military operation in Libya under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973. The stated purpose of Operation Unified Protector was "to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas under threat of attack [58]. Of the its 28 members, 14 took military action in support of the uprising, [59] 8 of which took part in ground attacks. In the first three months NATO aircraft flew over 13,000 sorties[60] and by September there is reported to have a been total of 22,817 sorties, including 8,560 strike sorties[61].

USA

On 17 May 2011, President Obama announced a new chapter in American diplomacy. In addition to the pursuit of existing policy objectives, such as countering terrorism, it would be be the policy of the United States to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy. But, noting that the people themselves who had launched the protest movements, he emphasised that it should be "the people themselves that must ultimately determine their outcome"[62]. A CNN/Opinion Research Poll indicated approval by a majority of Americans as well as opposition by a substantial minority[63].

Russia

In a condemnation of the UN resolution on Libya as comparable to "medieval calls for crusades" by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (repudiated, however, by President Dmitry Medvedev[64]) On 7 March Russian foreign minister Serghei Lavrov stressed Moscow's opposition to military intervention in Libya: "we don't see how any form of external intervention could possibly solve the Libyan crisis, especially if it were military in nature. Libyans need to solve their own problems.[65]

China

NATO air strikes were also condemned by the governments of China,[66] Venezuela and Cuba.[67].

References

  1. Corruption Perception :Index[1]
  2. The Democracy Index 2010, Economist Intelligence Unit
  3. Global Peace Index 2010
  4. Country Comparison, GDP per Capita (PPP), CIA World Factbook July 2011
  5. Popular Protests in North Africa and the Middle East (III): The Bahrain Revolt, International Crisis Group, 6 April 2011, MENA Report No. 105
  6. Briefing Note June 2010: Bahrain, Yemen, Sudan, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
  7. Who is in Egypt's High Military Council? , International Business Times, February 11, 2011
  8. 8.0 8.1 Khaled Elgindy: Egypt’s Transition Six Months On: From Diversity to Divisiveness,The Brookings Institution, 1 September 2011
  9. Egypt referendum strongly backs constitution changes, BBC News, 20 March 2011
  10. Political Parties, Carnegie Endowment's guide to Egypt's transition, October 2011
  11. Muslim Brotherhood website
  12. Profile: Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, BBC News 9 February 2011
  13. Al-Azhar Document, Egypt State Information Service, 25 October 2011
  14. 14.0 14.1 Economic Transformation in MENA: Delivering on the Promise of Shared Prosperity, (report by the staff of the International Monetary Fund for the G8 summit of May 27, 2011), G8 Information Centre
  15. Jordan protests: King Abdullah names Marouf Bakhit PM, BBC News 1 February 2001
  16. Islamic Action Front Party, Berkeley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs, 2011
  17. Natalia Antelava: Young Lebanese demonstrate for secularism in Beirut, BBC News April 2010
  18. Hezbollah and allies topple Lebanese unity government, BBC News,12 January 2011
  19. Jim Muir: Syrian influence grows in the new Lebanese government, BBC News, 14 June 2011
  20. Draft Constitutional Charter for the Transition Stage, National Transitional Council, 12 August 2011
  21. Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, IMF, October 2011
  22. Morrocans for Change website
  23. Saudi women given voting rights, Al Jazeera, 26 September 2011
  24. Report of the Fact-Finding Mission on Syria pursuant to Human Rights Council resolution S-16/1, June 2011
  25. Defected officers declare the formation of "Syrian Free Army", 29-7-2011, Youtube 29 July 2011
  26. Syrian opposition unites in new council, Al Jazeera, September 15 2011
  27. Assad forms committee to change Syria's constitution, Reuters, 15 October 2011
  28. Syria accepts Arab League peace plan after Cairo talks, BBC News, 2 November 2011
  29. Syrian tank fire kills three in Homs - activists, Reuters, 4 November 2011
  30. Arab League suspend activities of Syrian delegation , Day Press, 12 November 2011
  31. OIC General Secretariat renews call upon Syrian authorities to put an end to violence against civilians; condemns attacks on foreign embassies, 14 November
  32. Witnesses report rioting in Tunisian town, Reuters, 19 December 2010
  33. Q&A: Tunisia elections, BBC News 11 October 2011
  34. Larbi Sadiki: The real significance of Tunisia's election, al-Jazeera, 23 Oct 2011
  35. Abdelaziz Boumzar: Ennahda candidate defies female stereotype in Tunisia vote, Reuters, 20 October 2011
  36. People’s Petition for Freedom, Justice and Development party, Tunisia Live, 25th October 2011
  37. Allan Bradley: Tunisian Elections – Live Updates – RESULTS, Tunisia Live, 27 October 2011
  38. Frank Gardner: Arab Spring: Where it is now and where it may be going, BBC News 10 July 2011
  39. Report of the High Commissioner on OHCHR’s visit to Yemen, United Nations Human Rights Council, Eighteenth session 13 September 2011
  40. [http://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/aqap.htmlAl-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), National Counterterrorism Center, 2011]
  41. 41.0 41.1 Arab states seek Libya no-fly zone, al-Jazeera, 12 March 2011
  42. Mark Joyella: Pentagon Briefing Announces U.S. Missile Strikes On Libyan Air Defense, Mediate, March 19th, 2011
  43. Air strikes destroy Libyan air force, Euronews 23 March 2011
  44. Ulf Laessing and Missy Ryan: Rebels enter Tripoli, Reuters, Aug 21, 2011
  45. Barry Malone: Gaddafi killed in hometown, Libya eyes future, Reuters, Oct 20, 2011
  46. Mark Lyall-Grant: Is there an Arab Summer? The UN’s Response to the Arab Spring, Chatam House, 27 June 2011]
  47. Security Council imposes sanctions on Libyan authorities in bid to stem violent repression, UN News Centre, 26 February 2011
  48. Security Council Approves No Fly Zone over Libya
  49. Resolution 2009 (2011), United Nations Security Council, 16 September 2011
  50. Declaratin of the G8 on the Arab Spring,G8 Summit of Deauville, May 26-27, 2011
  51. Deauville Partnership Foreign Affairs Ministers’ Meeting Communiqué, September 20, 2011
  52. Joint Declaration of the International Financial Institutions, G8 Information Centre, September 10, 2011
  53. Deauville Partnership: IFI Coordination Platform, G8 Information Centre, September 10, 2011
  54. EU Council conclusions on Libya, Europa, 20 June 2011
  55. Military no cure for Libya crisis: German foreign minister, Reuters, Apr 1, 2011
  56. Lamine Chikhi: Italy's Berlusconi exposes NATO rifts over Libya, Reuters, July 7, 2011
  57. A Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean, Joint Communication to The European Council, The European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and The Committee of the Regions, European Commission, 8 March, 2011
  58. NATO and Libya, NATO press office October 2011
  59. France, the UK, the US, Belgium, Denmark, Norway, Italy and Canada
  60. Mike Elliot: By the Numbers: US air-involvement in Libyan military operations., The Western Experience July 1, 2011
  61. Nato continues its air strikes in Libya,Daniel Nouri's Blog, 16 September
  62. Obama’s Mideast Speech, New York Times, May 19, 2011
  63. CNN/Opinion Research Poll – March 18-20 – Libya.
  64. Russia's Vladimir Putin denies Libya rift with Medvedev, BBC News, 22 March 2011
  65. Ljubica Vujadinovic: Moscow says “No” to foreign military intervention in Libya, ALLVOICES, 7 March 2011
  66. Chris Buckley: China intensifies condemnation of Libya air strikes, Reuters, March 21, 2011
  67. Cuba And Venezuela Condemn Libya Strikes, Sky News, March 21 2011