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| ''The content of this article does not comply with [[CZ:Policy on Self-Promotion]] and [[CZ:What Citizendium articles are not]]. It is thus being transcluded to its talk page to allow the author to fix these problems. If I do not see the criteria being met within two weeks from now, I shall nominate this article for deletion on the above-mentioned grounds. This decision may be appealed with any editor in the Mathematics or Psychology workgroups. --[[User:Daniel Mietchen|Daniel Mietchen]] 10:36, 10 October 2009 (UTC) ''
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| | '''Eventology''' (literally "the study of events") is a term used from about 2000 onwards by Oleg Yu. Vorobyev, a mathematician at the [[Siberian Federal University]] in Russia, for his variant of [[probability theory]]. He claims the theory to be of "practical significance" both for "philosophical questions" and "economic, social and other questions in different applied fields" and to have "advanced to the foremost boundaries of natural sciences and human sciences". Although there are several papers authored by Vorobyev and his coworkers, there is no other corroborative evidence to support his claims. |
| '''Eventology''' (from lat. eventum, eventus — [[event]], [[outcome]], [[success]], [[destiny]] and + logos) is a scientific theory that studies eventful nature of a [[mind]] and a [[matter]]<ref> Schrödinger Erwin (1959) Mind and Matter. - Cambridge, at the University Press</ref>; a huge event variety of [[subject]]s (mind) and [[object]]s (matter); an event structure and event-valued functions; an origin, expansion, and development of sets of events; connections of events with each other; establishes the general and particular laws of eventful existence of a mind and a matter in all event occurrences and event properties. | |
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| In a basis of eventology lays remarks, which now seems obvious: «the matter and the mind is simply convenient way of linkage of events together» ([[Russell]]<ref>Russell Bertrand (1945) ''[[History of Western Philosophy (Russell)|A History of Western Philosophy and Its Connection with Political and Social Circumstances from the Earliest Times to the Present Day]]'', New York: Simon and Schuster</ref><ref>Russell Bertrand (1948) ''Human Knowledge: Its Scope and Limits'', London: George Allen & Unwin</ref>, 1946; [http://r-events.narod.ru Vorobyev], 2001) and «the mind appears there and then, where and when there is an ability to make a probabilistic choice» ([[Lefebvre]]<ref> Lefebvre V.A. (2001) Algebra of conscience. - Kluwer Academic Publishers. Dordrecht, Boston, London</ref><ref> Herrnstein R.J. (1961) Relative and Absolute strength of Response as a Function of Frequency of Reinforcement. - Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 4, 267-272</ref>, 2003). Using these remarks as initial axioms and also well-developed apparatus of [[Mathematical eventology|'''mathematical eventology''']] ([[Theory of random events (Crisp mathematical eventology)|'''crisp''']] and [[Theory of fuzzy events (Fuzzy mathematical eventology)|'''fuzzy''']]), eventology introduces mind directly as an [[eventological distribution]] of set of events in scientific and mathematical research and understands an eventological movement of events (movement of a matter or a mind) as changing the eventological distributions.
| | The term is also occasionally used outside mathematics to refer to the study of cultural and business events. |
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| From the point of eventology view, the [[probability]] is a property of an event: an event has a probability the same as the probability has an event; [[subjective probability]]<ref> [http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/sum2003/entries/probability-interpret Hajek, Alan (2003) Interpretations of Probability. - The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2003 Edition), Edward N.Zalta (ed.)]</ref> property of a [[subjective event]]. Such point of view allows to develop the [[Theory of fuzzy events (Fuzzy mathematical eventology)|eventological theory of fuzzy events]] which exclusively from positions of [[probability theory|Kolmogorov’s axiomatics of probability theory]] offers the strictly proved general approach to the eventological description of various kinds of [[fuzz|fuzziness]] and [[uncertainty]], including those kinds to which [[possibility theory]]<ref> Dubois D., H.Prade (1988) Possibility theory. - New York: Plenum Press</ref>, [[Dempster-Shafer theory| Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence]]<ref>Shafer G. (1976). A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. – Princeton University Press</ref>, [[fuzzy sets]] and [[fuzzy logic| fuzzy logic of Zadeh]]<ref>Zadeh L.A. (1965) Fuzzy Sets. - Information and Control. - Vol.8. - P.338-353</ref><ref>Zadeh L.A. (1968) Probability Measures of Fuzzy Events. - Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications. - Vol.10. - P.421-427</ref><ref>Zadeh L.A. (1978). Fuzzy Sets as a Basis for a Theory of Possibility. – Fuzzy Sets and Systems. - Vol.1. - P.3-28</ref><ref>Zadeh L.A. (2005). Toward a Generalized Theory of Uncertainty (GTU) - An Outline. - Information sciences</ref><ref>Zadeh L.A. (2005). Toward a computational theory of precisiation of meaning based on fuzzy logic - the concept of cointensive precisiation. - Proceedings of IFSA-2005 World Congress.} - Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, Springer</ref>, etc. are devoted.<br><br>
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| Alongside with philosophical questions, eventology also mentions [[economic]], [[social]] and other questions in different applied fields of [[natural]] and [[human]] sciences (see [[Eventology and its applications|«Eventology and its applications»]]).
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| ==Historical survey==
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| The first isolated attempts to cognize a mind and a matter from the point of view of an event, have been made during antique times ([[Aristotle]], [[Plato]], [[Sokrat]]). Elaborated through Renaissance antique ideas initiated modern scientific knowledge. Rapt observations upon event occurrence laid the foundation of probability theory in the 16th century ([[Blaise Pascal|Pascal]], [[Ferma]]). In the beginning of the 20th century it has turned into the scientific discipline, which leaned over mathematical definition of event as a subset of space of elementary events ([[Kolmogorov]], 1933); basically it was intended for ''«calculating probabilities of events from probabilities of other events»'' («Mathematical encyclopedic dictionary» (ed. Yu.V.Prokhorov), [[MED]], 1988; Encyclopedia «Probability and Mathematical Statistics» (ed. Yu.V.Prokhorov), [[PMS]], 1995). During the 19-20 c. experimental methods of observing upon events was thriving, as the result [[mathematical statistics]] arose – the scientific discipline focused on the solving problems, which are in the certain sense inverse to problems of probability theory, – estimation of [[probability distribution]]s by results of observations upon events. | |
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| The further development of [[probability theory]] has expanded the known eventful world of subjects and objects; has deepened the conception of it's eventful structure. At the same time speculative theories of eventful development and properties of a mind and a matter still prevailed. Sharply increased number of studied eventful objects (new eventful methods, penetration eventful techniques in various areas of knowledge), accumulation and differentiation of eventful knowledge formed a variety of application fields for eventful methodology.
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| One of the main achievements on a boundary of millenia is an association of separated eventful approaches and methods by the general name – '''«eventology»''' (the scientific theory directed on studying sets of events), and also creation of [[Mathematical eventology|'''mathematical eventology (crisp and fuzzy)''']] – the new branch, which has arisen within the probability theory. It studies [[eventological distribution]]s of sets of events, structures of its dependences and leans over the new [[principle of eventological duality]] of notion «a set of random events» and «a random set of events»
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| The development of eventology in 21 century has two characteristic and interconnected tendencies. On the one hand, [[Mathematical eventology |mathematical eventology]] develops; it has reached amazing successes, since 90th years of the last century has opened and isolated mathematical bases of the theory of dependences of sets of events. On the other hand, the aspiration to complete synthetic eventful knowledge of a mind and a matter has incited the eventological branches studying eventful properties of a mind and a matter at all structural levels of it's organization.
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| Among the last achievements of eventology are: – the eventological portfolio analysis, which allowed to put and solve so-called inverse eventological Markowitz’s problem ([[Harry Markowitz]]<ref>[http://r-events.narod.ru/0-papers/Markowitz1952-p0060.pdf Markowitz Harry (1952) Portfolio Selection. - The Journal of Finance. Vol. VII, No. 1, March, 77-91.]</ref>, the Nobel Prize, 1990) - unknown before. Discovering eventological basis of market «[[Alfred Marshall|Marshall]]’s cross»<ref>[http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/marshall/ Marshall Alfred: A collection of Marshall's published works]</ref> («[[supply and demand]] cross») in [[economics]]; theory «William [[Vickrey auction]]s» ([[William Vickrey]]<ref> [http://www.u.arizona.edu/~dreiley/papers/VickreyHistory.pdf Vickrey William: Paper on the history of Vickrey auctions in stamp collecting]</ref>, the Nobel Prize, 1994); the modern [[prospect theory]] ([[Daniel Kahneman]]<ref>Kahneman D., Tversky A. (1979) Prospect theory: An analysis of decisios under risk. - Econometrica, 47, 313-327</ref><ref>Tversky A., Kahneman D. (1992) Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. - Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297-323</ref>, the Nobel Prize, 2002), and, at last, the eventological system analysis with an object of research - sets of events – theoretical models of complex systems of events, which describes structures of system connections of any complexity with exhaustive completeness, resulted into fundamental eventological changes.
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| In each of the areas named above these eventological discoveries have allowed to look at problems with new eventful points of view. This has immediately led to new unexpected statements of problems, which became solvable with eventological methods, adding and improving each of the theories.
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| Practical significance of eventological researches and methods for a number of the most urgent applied areas, and also penetration into these researches of mathematical ideas and methods of the theory of random events have advanced eventology and the mathematical eventology from the beginning 21 century to the foremost boundaries of natural sciences and human sciences.
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| == Eventological sections on International conferences ==
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| * [http://kolmogorov-100.mi.ras.ru <b>(2003, Moscow University, Moscow, chairman. prof. A.N.Shiryaev)</b> International Conference "Kolmogorov and contemporary mathematics"] [http://kolmogorov-100.mi.ras.ru/schedule.pdf [1]][http://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?lang=ru&blang=en&page=Book&list=69&id=24900 [2]]
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| * [http://www.iasted.org/conferences/2005/russia/acit-specialsession.htm <b>(2005, IASTED'2005, Novosibirsk)</b> II International Conference "Automation, Control and Information Technology"<br> (session “Eventology of random-fuzzy events”, chairman prof. O.Yu.Vorobyev)]
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| * [http://ifsa2005.em.tsinghua.edu.cn <b>(2005, IFSA'2005, Beijing, chairman prof. L.A.Zadeh)</b> XI International Fuzzy Systems Association World Congress<br> (session “Eventology of fuzzy events”, chairman prof. O.Yu.Vorobyev)]
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| * [http://cubisme.upc.es/eusflat05/index.php?id=invited <b>(2005, EUSFLAT'2005, Barselona, chairman prof. L.A.Zadeh)</b> IV International Conference of European Society for Fuzzy Logic and Technology<br> (session “Eventological theory of fuzzy events”, chairman prof. O.Yu.Vorobyev)]
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| * [http://ipmu2006.lip6.fr/program.php <b>(2006, IPMU'2006, Paris, chairman prof. L.A.Zadeh, keynote speaker D.Kahneman)</b> XI International Conference “Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty”<br> (session E22 “Eventology and Unceratainty”, chairman prof. O.Yu.Vorobyev)]
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| == [http://r-events.narod.ru/6e.htm PhD theses on eventology (phys.-math. sciences, in Russian)] ==
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| * Vorobyev Alexei <b>(1998)</b> Direct and inverse problems for models of spreading space risks. Krasnoyarsk: ICM of RAS
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| * Goldenok Ellen <b>(2002)</b> Modeling dependence and interaction structures of random events in statistical systems. Krasnoyarsk: KGTEI
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| * Kupriyanova Tatyana <b>(2002)</b> A problem of classification of subsets of random set and its application. Krasnoyarsk: Krasnoyarsk University
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| * Semenova Daria <b>(2002)</b> Methods of constructing statistical dependencies of portfolio operations in market systems. Krasnoyarsk: ICM of RAS
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| * Fomin Andrew <b>(2002)</b> Set-regressional analysis of dependencies of random events in statistical systems. Krasnoyarsk: ICM of RAS
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| * Klotchkov Svyatoslav <b>(2006)</b> Eventological models of distributing and filling resources. Krasnoyarsk: KGTEI
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| * Baranova Iren <b>(2006)</b> Methods of bipartitional sets of events in eventological analysis of complicated systems. Krasnoyarsk: Krasnoyarsk University
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| * Tyaglova Hellena <b>(2006)</b> Game theory methods of analysis of random sets of events. Krasnoyarsk: ICM of RAS
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| * Tarasova Olga <b>(2007)</b> Grid and Regression Algorithms of Approximation of Complicated Systems of Events. Krasnoyarsk: ICM of RAS
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| == Bibliography (in English) ==
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| * Vorobyev O.Yu. <b>(1991)</b> Set-summation. Soviet Math. Dokl. 1991, Vol.43,p.747-752
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| * Vorobyev O.Yu. <b>(1993)</b> The calculus of set-distribution. Rissian Acad. Sci., Dokl. Math., 1993, Vol.46, 301-306.
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| * Vorobyev O.Yu., A.O.Vorobyev <b>(1994)</b> Summation of set-additive functions anf the Mobius inversion formula. Russian Acad. Sci. Dokl. Math., vol. 49, No. 2, 340-344.
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| * [http://www.amazon.com/gp/sitbv3/reader/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-2974729-5527057?%5Fencoding=UTF8&asin=0471937576 Stoyan Dietrich, and Helga Stoyan <b>(1994)</b> Fractals, Random Shapes and Point Fields. Methods of Geometrical Statistics. John Wiley and Sons. Chichester, New York<br> (pp.107-116: ''Vorobyev's means'' of a random set)]
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| * Vorobyev O.Yu., A.O.Vorobyev <b>(1996)</b> Inverse problems for generalized Richardson's model of spread. Computational Fluid Dynamics'96, John Wiley & Sons, 104-110.
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| * Vorobyev O.Yu. <b>(1996)</b> A random set analysis of fire spread. Fire Technology, NFPA (USA), v.32, N 2, 137--173.
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| * Vorobyev Oleg Yu., Arcady A. Novosyolov, Konstantin V. Simonov, and Andrew Yu. Fomin <b>(2001)</b> Portfolio Analysis of Financial Market Risks by Random Set Tools. Risks in Investment Accumulation Products of Financial Institutions. Simposium Proceedings held in January 1999, New York. Schaumburg, USA: The Society of Actuaries, 43--66.
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| == Bibliography (in Russian) ==
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| * Vorobyev Oleg <b>(1978)</b> Probabilistic set modeling. — Novosibirsk: Nauka. — 131 p.
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| * Vorobyev Oleg <b>(1984)</b> Mean measure modeling. — Moscow: Nauka. — 133 p.
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| * Vorobyev Oleg <b>(1993)</b> Set-summation. — Novosibirsk: Nauka. — 137 p.
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| * [http://www.bs-books.ru/ws/14/1389.htm Kovyazin S.A. <b>(1999)</b> Mean measure set. — Probability and Mathematical Statistics. Encyclopaedia. Ed. Yu.V.Prokhorov. Moscow: BRE.<br> (''Mean measure set: Vorobyev’s means''. – p.644.)]
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| * [http://narod.ru/disk/874152000/VorobyovOleg~2007~Eventology~435p.rar.html Vorobyev Oleg <b>(2007)</b> Eventology. — Krasnoyarsk: Siberian Federal University. — 435p.]
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| == Remarks ==
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| <references/>
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| == References ==
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| *Blyth C.R. (1972) On Simpson's Paradox and the Sure --- Thing Principle. - Journal of the American Statistical Association, June, 67, P.367-381.
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| *Feynman R.P. (1982) Simulating physics with computers. - International Journal of Theoretical Physics, Vol. 21, nos. 6/7, 467-488.
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| *Fr'echet M. (1935) G'en'eralisations du th'eor'eme des probabilit'es totales - Fundamenta Mathematica. - 25.
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| *Nelsen R.B. (1999) An Introduction to Copulas. - Lecture Notes in Statistics, Springer-Verlag, New York, v.139.
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| *[http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2002/smith-lecture.pdf Smith Vernon (2002) Nobel Lecture.]
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| *Stoyan D., and H. Stoyan (1994) Fractals, Random Shapes and Point Fields. - Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
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| == External links ==
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| * [http://r-events.narod.ru Eventology and Mathematical eventology at the site of the author of theory].
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| * [http://communitytest.wikia.com/wiki/User:Helgus Eventology at CT-Wikia]
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| == See also ==
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| *[[Eventological forecasting|Eventological forecasting]]
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| *[[Mathematical eventology|Mathematical eventology]]
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| *[[Theory of random events (Crisp mathematical eventology)|Theory of random events (Crisp mathematical eventology)]]
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| *[[Theory of fuzzy events (Fuzzy mathematical eventology)|Theory of fuzzy events (Fuzzy mathematical eventology)]]
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| *[[Eventology and its applications|Eventology and its applications]]
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| *[[Fuzzy set]]
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| *[[Fuzzy logic]]
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| *[[Possibility theory]]
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| *[[Dempster-Shafer theory]]
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