Great Depression in the United States/Tutorials: Difference between revisions

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[[Image:Gdp20-40.jpg|thumb|center|550px|Chart 1: GDP annual pattern and long-term trend, 1920-40, in billions of constant dollars<ref> based on data in Susan Carter, ed. ''Historical Statistics of the US: Millennial Edition'' (2006) series Ca9  </ref>]]
{{Image|Gdp20-40.jpg|center|550px|Chart 1: GDP annual pattern and long-term trend, 1920-40, in billions of constant dollars<ref> based on data in Susan Carter, ed. ''Historical Statistics of the US: Millennial Edition'' (2006) series Ca9  </ref>}}


<references/>
<references/>
Line 18: Line 18:
==Employment Trend==
==Employment Trend==


[[Image:US-jobs2040.JPG|thumb|center|450px|Chart 2: total employment in US, excluding farms and WPA]]
{{Image|US-jobs2040.JPG|center|450px|Chart 2: total employment in US, excluding farms and WPA}}




==Expenditure levels==
==Components of expenditure==
:(billions of 1929 dollars)
(billions of 1929 dollars)


::::{| class="wikitable"
::::{| class="wikitable"
!
!
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1926
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1927
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1928
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1928
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1929
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1929
Line 38: Line 40:
|-
|-
|align="center"|Gross National Product
|align="center"|Gross National Product
|align="center"|96.4
|align="center"|97.3
|align="center"|98.5
|align="center"|98.5
|align="center"|104.4
|align="center"|104.4
Line 50: Line 54:
|-
|-
|align="center"|Consumer Spending
|align="center"|Consumer Spending
|align="center"|71.5
|align="center"|73.2
|align="center"|74.8
|align="center"|74.8
|align="center"|79.0
|align="center"|79.0
Line 62: Line 68:
|-
|-
|align="center"|Gross Investment
|align="center"|Gross Investment
|align="center"|17.1
|align="center"|15.6
|align="center"|14.5
|align="center"|14.5
|align="center"|16.2
|align="center"|16.2
Line 74: Line 82:
|-
|-
|align="center"|Construction
|align="center"|Construction
|align="center"|10.7
|align="center"|10.4
|align="center"|9.8
|align="center"|9.8
|align="center"|8.7
|align="center"|8.7
Line 86: Line 96:
|}
|}


:::Source: Kendrik 1961 <ref name=Temin> Quoted in Peter Temin: ''Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression?'', W W Norton 1976</ref>
:::Source: Kendrik 1961 <ref name=Temin> Quoted in Peter Temin: ''Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression?'', W W Norton 1976</ref>
 
==Industrial Production==
(1935-9 = 100, seasonally corrected)
 
:::::{| class="wikitable"
!
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |Jan
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |Feb
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |Mar
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |April
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |May
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |June
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |July
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |Aug
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |Sep
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |Oct
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |Nov
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |Dec
|-
|align="center"|1929
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|114
|align="center"|114
|align="center"|112
|align="center"|110
|align="center"|105
|align="center"|100
|-
|align="center"|1930
|align="center"|100
|align="center"|100
|align="center"|98
|align="center"|98
|align="center"|96
|align="center"|93
|align="center"|89
|align="center"|86
|align="center"|85
|align="center"|83
|align="center"|81
|align="center"|79
|-
|align="center"|1931
|align="center"|78
|align="center"|79
|align="center"|80
|align="center"|80
|align="center"|80
|align="center"|77
|align="center"|76
|align="center"|73
|align="center"|68
|align="center"|67
|align="center"|66
|align="center"|64
|-
|align="center"|1932
|align="center"|64
|align="center"|63
|align="center"|62
|align="center"|58
|align="center"|56
|align="center"|54
|align="center"|53
|align="center"|54
|align="center"|58
|align="center"|60
|align="center"|59
|align="center"|58
|-
|align="center"|1933
|align="center"|58
|align="center"|57
|align="center"|54
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|align="center"|
|}
:::::Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin (quoted in Bernanke<ref name=Bernanke> Ben Bernanke: ''Essays on the Great Depression'', Princeton University Press, 2000</ref>.)


==Price Indexes==
==Price Indexes==
Line 93: Line 193:
:::::{| class="wikitable"
:::::{| class="wikitable"
!
!
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1926
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1927
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1928
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1928
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1929
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1929
Line 105: Line 207:
|-
|-
|align="center"|Wholesale Prices
|align="center"|Wholesale Prices
|align="center"|65.0
|align="center"|62.0
|align="center"|62.9
|align="center"|62.9
|align="center"|61.9
|align="center"|61.9
Line 117: Line 221:
|-
|-
|align="center"|Consumer Prices
|align="center"|Consumer Prices
|align="center"|75.6
|align="center"|74.2
|align="center"|73.3
|align="center"|73.3
|align="center"|73.3
|align="center"|73.3
Line 136: Line 242:
:::::{| class="wikitable"
:::::{| class="wikitable"
!
!
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1926
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1927
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1928
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1928
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1929
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1929
Line 148: Line 256:
|-
|-
|align="center"|M1
|align="center"|M1
|align="center"|25.9
|align="center"|25.9
|align="center"|26.2
|align="center"|26.2
|align="center"|26.4
|align="center"|26.4
Line 160: Line 270:
|-
|-
|align="center"|M2
|align="center"|M2
|align="center"|43.3
|align="center"|44.5
|align="center"|46.1
|align="center"|46.1
|align="center"|46.2
|align="center"|46.2
Line 172: Line 284:
|-
|-
|align="center"|High-powered money
|align="center"|High-powered money
|align="center"|7.1
|align="center"|7.2
|align="center"|7.1
|align="center"|7.1
|align="center"|7.1
|align="center"|7.1
Line 188: Line 302:
==Fiscal Stance==
==Fiscal Stance==


:(''Full employment deficit - see the [[/Related Articles|Glossary]]'')
(Full employment deficit - see the [[/Related Articles|Glossary]])


{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
Line 213: Line 327:
|align="center"|-1.5
|align="center"|-1.5
|align="center"|-1.0
|align="center"|-1.0
|align="center"|2.0
|align="center"|-2.0
|align="center"|2.0
|align="center"|-2.0
|align="center"|2.0
|align="center"|-2.0
|align="center"|2.0
|align="center"|-2.0
|align="center"|2.5
|align="center"|-2.5
|align="center"|0
|align="center"|0
|align="center"|1.0
|align="center"|-1.0
|align="center"|1.0
|align="center"|-1.0
|align="center"|0
|align="center"|0
|align="center"|1.0
|align="center"|1.0
Line 228: Line 342:
|}
|}


Sources: De Long [http://econ161.berkeley.edu/pdf_files/Defining_Moment_Draft.pdf] and Krugman [http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/fiscal-fdr/]
:Sources: De Long [http://econ161.berkeley.edu/pdf_files/Defining_Moment_Draft.pdf] and Krugman [http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/fiscal-fdr/]
 
==Unemployment==


==Output and Unemployment==
(% of civilian labour force.  WPA employees are not included)
:(Output: 1935-39 = 100)
:(Unemployment: - excluding WPA employees - % of civilian labour force)


:::::{| class="wikitable"
:::::{| class="wikitable"
Line 244: Line 358:
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1937
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1937
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1938
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1938
|-
|align="center"|Industrial Production
|align="center"|109
|align="center"|75
|align="center"|69
|
|
|
|align="center"|112
|
|-
|-
|align="center"|Unemployment
|align="center"|Unemployment
Line 276: Line 380:
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1933
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1933
|-
|-
|align="center"|Percent of operating banks<ref> Ben Bernanke: ''Essays on the Great Depression'', page 44, Princeton University Press, 2000</ref>
|align="center"|Percent of operating banks
|align="center"|5.6
|align="center"|5.6
|align="center"|10.5
|align="center"|10.5
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|align="center"|12.9
|align="center"|12.9
|}
|}
::::::Source: Bernanke (2000) <ref name=Bernanke/>
==Stock exchange performance==
(End-year Standard and Poor Composite series 1941-43 = 100, and annual earnings)
(Averages of monthly Cowles series 1926=100 , and annual earnings)
===Price indexes===
:::::{| class="wikitable"
!
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1927
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1928
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1929
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1930
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1931
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1932
|-
|align="center"|Standard & Poor
|align="center"|17.7
|align="center"|24.4
|align="center"|21.5
|align="center"|15.3
|align="center"|8.1
|align="center"|6.9
|-
|align="center"|Cowles
|align="center"|118
|align="center"|150
|align="center"|190
|align="center"|150
|align="center"|95
|align="center"|49
|}
===Price/earnings ratios===
:::::{| class="wikitable"
!
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1927
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1928
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1929
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1930
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1931
!style="background:#eeeeee;" |1932
|-
|align="center"|Standard & Poor
|align="center"|15.9
|align="center"|17.6
|align="center"|13.3
|align="center"|15.8
|align="center"|13.3
|align="center"|16.8
|-
|align="center"|Cowles
|align="center"|13.2
|align="center"|13.7
|align="center"|16.1
|align="center"|21.1
|align="center"|33.7
|align="center"|138.9
|}
::Source: Temin (1976) <ref name=Temin> Peter Temin: Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression'', WW Norton & co, 1976</ref>


==References==
==References==
<references/>
<references/>

Latest revision as of 04:33, 8 June 2009

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Tutorials relating to the topic of Great Depression in the United States.


Statistics of the Depression



GDP Trend

Chart 1: GDP annual pattern and long-term trend, 1920-40, in billions of constant dollars[1]
  1. ↑ based on data in Susan Carter, ed. Historical Statistics of the US: Millennial Edition (2006) series Ca9


Employment Trend

Chart 2: total employment in US, excluding farms and WPA


Components of expenditure

(billions of 1929 dollars)

1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937
Gross National Product 96.4 97.3 98.5 104.4 95.1 89.5 76.4 74.2 80.8 91.4 100.9 109.1
Consumer Spending 71.5 73.2 74.8 79.0 74.7 72.2 66.0 64.6 68.0 72.3 79.7 82.6
Gross Investment 17.1 15.6 14.5 16.2 10.5 6.8 0.8 0.3 1.8 8.8 9.3 14.6
Construction 10.7 10.4 9.8 8.7 6.4 4.5 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.8 3.9 4.6
Source: Kendrik 1961 [1]

Industrial Production

(1935-9 = 100, seasonally corrected)

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1929 114 114 112 110 105 100
1930 100 100 98 98 96 93 89 86 85 83 81 79
1931 78 79 80 80 80 77 76 73 68 67 66 64
1932 64 63 62 58 56 54 53 54 58 60 59 58
1933 58 57 54
Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin (quoted in Bernanke[2].)

Price Indexes

(1947-49 = 100)

1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937
Wholesale Prices 65.0 62.0 62.9 61.9 56.1 47.4 42.1 42.8 48.7 52.0 52.5 56.1
Consumer Prices 75.6 74.2 73.3 73.3 71.4 65.0 58.4 55.3 57.2 58.7 59.3 61.4
Source Historical Statistics[1]

Money Supply

(billions of dollars)

1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937
M1 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.4 25.4 23.6 20.5 19.4 21.5 25.5 29.2 30.3
M2 43.3 44.5 46.1 46.2 45.2 41.7 34.6 30.8 33.3 38.4 42.8 45.0
High-powered money 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.2 9.1 10.7 12.2 13.4
Source: Friedman and Schwartz [1]

Fiscal Stance

(Full employment deficit - see the Glossary)

1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944
Deficit % of potential GDP -0.5 -1.5 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.5 0 -1.0 -1.0 0 1.0 2.0 15 25
Sources: De Long [1] and Krugman [2]

Unemployment

(% of civilian labour force. WPA employees are not included)

1929 1931 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938
Unemployment 3.1 16.1 20.6 16.0 14.2 9.9 9.1 12.5
Source: Historical Statistics

Bank Failures

1930 1931 1932 1933
Percent of operating banks 5.6 10.5 7.8 12.9
Source: Bernanke (2000) [2]

Stock exchange performance

(End-year Standard and Poor Composite series 1941-43 = 100, and annual earnings) (Averages of monthly Cowles series 1926=100 , and annual earnings)

Price indexes

1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
Standard & Poor 17.7 24.4 21.5 15.3 8.1 6.9
Cowles 118 150 190 150 95 49


Price/earnings ratios

1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
Standard & Poor 15.9 17.6 13.3 15.8 13.3 16.8
Cowles 13.2 13.7 16.1 21.1 33.7 138.9
Source: Temin (1976) [1]

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Quoted in Peter Temin: Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression?, W W Norton 1976 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "Temin" defined multiple times with different content
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Ben Bernanke: Essays on the Great Depression, Princeton University Press, 2000
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